Non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and BTC's test of $80k liquidity support has failed.

Event itself: Tonight, the US April non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 62k, well below the previous 178k, but ADP exceeded expectations at 109k, indicating employment resilience.
Federal Reserve officials signaled maintaining interest rates unchanged, and geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict has eased, but oil remains high.
BTC lost the $80k level, and the liquidation heat map shows significant liquidity at $78k; a break below could trigger further liquidations.
There is dense short-term liquidity in the $82,000-$83k range, with clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Why is now important: Non-farm payroll data is a key reference for Fed policy. If employment exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will be undermined, putting risk assets under pressure.
BTC is repeatedly fighting around $80k, but liquidity support has failed, indicating market sentiment is fragile.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows frequent high-leverage operations by whales, with divergence in funding rates, increasing structural fragility.
Underlying changes: Derivatives market is disconnected, negative funding rates diverge from prices, and institutional hedging demand is rising.
Mining companies are shifting to AI-driven hash power extraction, ETF capital inflows are unstable, and the market lacks sustained buying.
Downside risks: If non-farm payrolls beat expectations, BTC could accelerate downward to $78,000 or lower; if data falls short, there may be a short-term rebound, but structural issues remain unresolved, and high-leverage positions are still a ticking time bomb.
$btc