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Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,815, and the market is at a critical crossroads. Here are 4 key points to know:
1. On-Chain: Major Players Accumulating
In the past 30 days, long-term wallets have added 331,000 BTC. This means a net accumulation of over $80k. During the same period, inflows into spot ETFs continue. Retail investors are hesitant, asking "Is this the peak?" while institutional money is buying on dips. This divergence is often seen before a major move.
2. Macro Pressure: Eyes on NFP
JOLTS data from May 5 showed strong results, shifting rate cut expectations to July. Tomorrow, May 8, the NFP report will be released. If the data exceeds expectations, short-term selling pressure may occur, with $76,500 as the first support. If below expectations, the $82,000 - $84,000 range could be quickly tested.
3. May Calendar: Volatility Guaranteed
• May 12: CPI Data. Inflation trends will determine the Fed's next move.
• May 15: Fed Chair's term ends. The tone from the new chair will influence the market.
• May 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day. Social volume increases, and rapid price movements become more frequent.
• May 29: End of monthly options. The “max pain” zone $80k , where price may be attracted, becomes important.
4. Liquidity Warning
In the past 2 weeks, the reserve of tokens held steady in market maker wallets has decreased by 6.2%. Order books are becoming thinner. This indicates a sharp spike during data releases. Use wider stop distances or reduce leverage in leveraged trading.
Summary
Maintaining above $80K is crucial for BTC. Institutional buying continues, but macro data and low liquidity will make short-term movements volatile. Partial buying for spot accumulation makes sense; trading during data releases is risky.
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Note: This post is not investment advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).