The Hormuz Strait crisis has dragged on until now, and the market has invented a new term:

NACHO = Not A Chance Hormuz Opens (No chance the Hormuz Strait will open).

Replacing the previous TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out.

This shift itself is a signal—

TACO's premise is "Trump will back down, a ceasefire will be reached quickly."

NACHO's premise is "Forget it, it's impossible to resolve in the short term."

The core logic of NACHO:

First, insurance companies refuse to insure ships passing through the Hormuz Strait—risks are too high, premiums are too steep.

Second, oil prices remain high, driving inflation.

Third, the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates in the short term because of this.

Market analyst Zavier Wong said plainly: "Essentially, it’s giving up hope for a quick resolution."

Translated, this means—

"We’ve been repeatedly slapped in the face and are now giving up."

Every time a ceasefire news comes out, oil prices fall, then either Iran denies it, the Houthis continue to attack, or oil tankers are attacked. After a few cycles, the market learns: don’t price in any "good news," because good news never comes.

The impact chain on the crypto market:

High oil prices → inflation → Fed doesn’t cut rates → liquidity remains tight → BTC faces pressure

This logical chain won't change in the short term unless one side truly makes concessions.

Wall Street’s new consensus is: NACHO, not TACO.

In plain language: no longer expecting Trump to "back down," because whether the Hormuz Strait opens or not doesn’t depend on Trump, but on Iran and that behind-the-scenes military force.

And that military force is not easily scared. #BTC重返8万 $CL