#Gate广场五月交易分享 Non-farm data beats expectations—how will the financial market drama unfold?

Last night, the U.S. released non-farm payroll data of 115k actual jobs, far exceeding expectations (62k). After a slight dip, the market rebounded. So, what will happen to the gold and BTC market next? Let’s hear what Xiao Caishen has to say:

1. Core contradictions in the data: strong employment vs. weak wages
- Surging new jobs: The actual figure of 115k far exceeds expectations (62k). On top of that, the prior figure was revised upward to 185k, showing resilience in the labor market.
- Slowing wage growth: Average hourly earnings increased only 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%), and 3.6% year-over-year (expected 3.8%), significantly easing inflation pressure.
- Divergent market interpretation: Concerns about an overheated economy (delaying rate cuts) vs. worries about stagflation (high employment + low wage growth).

2. Gold: a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations
- Logic behind a sharp short-term jump:
Data contradictions trigger two-way positioning: strong employment delays rate cuts (bearish for gold), but weak wages weaken fears of inflation (bullish for gold).
- Geopolitical safe-haven dominance:
Escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict (an attack on a tanker vessel, missiles exchanged). Spot gold breaks above 4720 dollars per ounce, and silver surges 3.22% in a single day.
- Factors that suppress in the long run:
The Fed’s policy anchor: If CPI rebounds in the future, fading rate-cut expectations will weigh on gold prices.
- Key technical levels:
A break above 4744 dollars will open up upside room; losing 4685 dollars may trigger a “longs-get-stopped-out” stampede.
- Gold strategy:
In the short term, lightly chase longs by riding safe-haven sentiment, but keep a close watch on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields for developments 1 hour after the non-farm data.

3. Bitcoin: liquidity game and divergence in institutional behavior
- Abnormal rise after the data release:
Despite strong non-farm payrolls, BTC unexpectedly breaks through 80,000 (Material 5). There are three reasons:
- Spillover from U.S. equities: The Nasdaq has risen for six straight weeks (Material 6), and optimistic sentiment in tech stocks spills over.
- Weak wage growth as a buffer: Low-inflation data weakens aggressive rate-hike expectations, supporting the valuations of risk assets.
- On-chain whale support: Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC increased their holdings week-over-week by the largest amount within the year (Material 7).
- Institutional capital undercurrents:
- ETF polarization: BlackRock’s iBit attracts 532 million dollars in a single day (Material 1), but overall net inflows slow down.
- Hedge fund arbitrage: Use the CME futures gap at 84,000 dollars to set up long/short positioning for a battle (open interest reaches 25 billion dollars).
- Bitcoin Alert: If tech stocks pull back after U.S. stock market opens, it may trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged longs (support level to closely watch: 78,500 dollars).

Summary: At present, it looks like the strong-BTC pattern has already formed. After a slight dip last night, it quickly recovered. This week, the weekly chart is likely to stand above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The impact of non-farm news on the crypto market is generally limited; the market has already “dulled” the bearish signals. Institutional inflows and technical support together create strong upward momentum. Family members, the main approach is still to buy on dips—try not to bet heavily on shorts.