Bitunix Analyst: The market remains cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report, BTC tests the $80k liquidity support, which has failed.

BlockBeats News, May 9 — Market focus has fully shifted to the U.S. April non-farm employment data that will be released tonight. Markets expect an increase of 62,000 in non-farm payrolls, which is clearly lower than the previous figure of 178,000, reflecting that the U.S. labor market is gradually cooling. However, the latest ADP “mini non-farm” report showed an increase of 109,000, higher than market expectations, prompting markets to reassess whether the labor market still has resilience.

What the market is more focused on now is no longer whether the economy will fall into recession immediately, but whether the “low hiring, low layoffs” structure will continue. If the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will have more room to keep interest rates high for a longer period. In recent days, including Fed officials such as Harker and Collins, they have also continued to send signals that they prefer to keep rates unchanged.

On the geopolitical front, although the U.S. and Iran have again exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides are still continuing to preserve space for negotiations. The U.S. has emphasized that it has no intention to escalate the situation, and Middle Eastern media have also reported that the U.S. and Iran have reached some consensus on certain maritime blockade issues, temporarily easing concerns about a full-scale escalation of conflict. Crude oil prices have pulled back to around $95, but gasoline prices within the U.S. remain high, indicating that energy inflation pressure has not been fully relieved.

As for the crypto market, yesterday BTC fell below 80000. From the liquidation heat map, there is a large amount of liquidity at $78,000, and a break below could trigger further liquidations; however, dense short liquidity is also present in the $82,000 to $83,000 zone, showing that the short-term market is still locked in a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears.