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This Week's Crude Oil Market Summary
This week, international crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels, showing a pattern of rising and then pulling back overall, as the market repeatedly grapples between expectations of easing geopolitical conflicts and the reality of tight supply.
Early in the week, strength continued: influenced by disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating US-Iran tensions, the crude oil market experienced eight consecutive days of gains from April 28 to 30, with Brent crude briefly surging to $126.41 per barrel, a four-year high, and WTI breaking through $107.93 per barrel.
Midweek rapid decline: as Iran submitted new negotiation proposals, the UAE withdrew from OPEC+, and signals of easing US-Iran tensions appeared, geopolitical risk premiums quickly diminished, with WTI prices falling from highs to around $102, fluctuating, and Brent retreating to $114 per barrel.
Inventory data supports the fundamentals: as of the week ending May 1, US EIA crude inventories decreased by 2.31M barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories significantly dropped by 5.22M barrels, indicating continued tight supply and supporting oil prices.
Weekend rally again: despite rising expectations of geopolitical easing, actual passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed, and Iran unilaterally established a navigation control mechanism, causing market concerns over ongoing supply disruptions. On May 6, WTI prices rebounded to around $100.08 per barrel.
Current core contradiction: in the short term, oil prices are dominated by sentiment, with geopolitical risk premiums repeatedly released and spot supply remaining tight, leading to high volatility. WTI trades mainly in the $98–$108 range, while Brent fluctuates at high levels between $110–$120 per barrel.
Key conclusion this week: the crude oil market has shifted from a "single geopolitical driver" to a "geopolitical + fundamentals + capital" three-dimensional game. Short-term corrections do not alter the overall high-level pattern, and future trends depend on US-Iran negotiations and global demand resilience.