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US non-farm data beats expectations—how will the financial markets play out?

Last night, the US released non-farm data of 115k, well above expectations (62k). After a slight dip, the market rebounded. So where will gold and Big Ben (BTC) go next? Let’s hear what Xiao Caishen has to say:

1. The core contradiction in the data: strong employment vs weak wages‌

‌A surge in new jobs‌: The actual figure of 115k far exceeded expectations (62k). Combined with an upward revision of the prior value to 185k, it shows resilience in the labor market.

‌Wage growth slows‌: Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month over month (expected 0.3%), and by 3.6% year over year (expected 3.8%). This significantly eases inflation pressure.

‌A split in market interpretation‌: Concerns about an overheated economy (pushing back rate cuts) vs worries about stagflation (high employment + low wage growth).

‌2. Gold: a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations‌

‌Logic behind the sharp jump in the short term‌:

‌Contradictory data triggers two-way positioning‌: Strong employment delays rate cuts (bearish for gold), but weak wages weaken inflation threats (bullish for gold).

‌Geopolitical safe-haven takes the lead‌: The US-Iran conflict escalates (oil tanker attacks, missile exchanges). Spot gold breaks above 4720 USD/oz, and silver skyrockets 3.22% in a single day.

‌Long-term factors that suppress‌:

‌The Fed’s policy anchor‌: If CPI rebounds in the future, the fading of rate-cut expectations will weigh on gold prices.

‌Key technical levels‌: Breaking above 4744 USD opens upside space. Losing 4685 USD or lower may trigger a long squeeze.

‌Gold strategy‌: In the short term, lightly chase longs using safe-haven sentiment, but closely watch the US dollar and US Treasury yields movement 1 hour after the non-farm data.

3. Bitcoin: a battle over liquidity and divergence in institutional behavior‌

‌Unusual strength after the data release‌: Despite strong non-farm data, Bitcoin breaks through 80,000 (Material 5). There are three main reasons:

‌US equities transmission effect‌: The Nasdaq has risen for six straight weeks (Material 6), and optimistic sentiment in tech stocks spills over.

‌Weak wages buffer‌: Low inflation data weakens aggressive rate-hike expectations, supporting the valuation of risk assets.

‌On-chain whale support‌: Addresses holding 1000+ BTC increased holdings week over week to a new intrayear high (Material 7).

‌Institutional capital undercurrents‌:

‌ETF polarization‌: BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in 532 million USD in a single day (Material 1), but overall net inflows slowed.

‌Hedge fund arbitrage‌: Using CME futures to position for a long-vs-short showdown around the 84,000 USD gap (open interest reaches 25 billion USD).

‌Bitcoin alert‌: If tech stocks pull back after the US stock market opens, it could trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged longs (support level to watch closely at 78,500 USD).

Summary: At present, a strong BTC pattern has already formed. After last night’s slight dip, it quickly recovered. This week, the weekly chart is very likely to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The non-farm news has only a moderate impact on the crypto market. The market has effectively “dulled” the bearish sentiment. Combined with institutional inflows and technical support, there is strong upward momentum. Family, it’s still best to buy on dips, and try not to bet on short positions.