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Recently, I saw a bunch of people watching whale addresses and trying to follow their trades.
I now prefer to pause first: Is this transaction actually building a position, or is it hedging?
To put it simply, even if it's "buying," sometimes it's just the other side already shorting or doing protection; it looks aggressive on the surface but is actually reducing risk.
Especially when dealing with cross-chain back-and-forth, splitting into multiple trades, I’d rather pretend I didn’t see it.
Layer 2 has been arguing over TPS, fees, and subsidies again lately, and on-chain noise has gotten even louder.
Whales also love to take advantage of low fees to make "moves."
I take simplicity as a trap: a single statement like "a certain whale bought" is really not enough.
You need to look at the changes in positions before and after, whether there’s stablecoin inflow/outflow at the same time, or else following along just becomes liquidity.
Anyway, my current principle is: if I don’t understand the purpose, I won’t follow.
That’s all for now.