Non-farm payroll data lands, major asset classes rally across the board, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations undergo a significant shift.

The non-farm market landscape shifts markedly overnight. U.S. non-farm employment added 115k jobs in April, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Although the absolute number of new jobs is below high levels, it has been a strong rebound for two consecutive months in 2024, demonstrating resilience in the labor market once again.

At the industry level, there is structural differentiation: employment data in healthcare, logistics and freight, and retail sectors all show improvement, with courier-related positions reaching a new high since 2020; previously sluggish sectors like construction and hospitality/tourism also see marginal recovery. The tech sector remains weak, with companies like Meta and Microsoft continuing layoffs, and employment in the information industry has declined for 16 consecutive months.

This unexpectedly strong non-farm data provides solid support for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate path. The stabilization of the labor market weakens the need for policy to cut rates early to support the economy; meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and tariffs are again pushing inflation upward, and combined with Fed statements indicating ongoing employment stability, future policy focus will be solely anchored on inflation trends.

Market outlook experts are clear: four months ago, markets still worried about a slowdown in employment; now, the risk of employment decline has been largely eliminated, and the probability of a rate cut in the short term has significantly decreased. The timing of rate cuts is most likely delayed until Q4, with a marginal increase in unemployment as a prerequisite.

Asset reactions are immediate and clear: U.S. stocks fluctuate and rise, precious metals like gold and silver move higher in tandem, the dollar index continues its weak downward trend, and market trading logic has shifted to maintaining high interest rates and repeatedly battling inflation.

Overall, the current macro landscape is set: the employment market has bottomed out and stabilized, inflation has returned as a main concern, and Fed policy has entered a wait-and-see cycle. The pace of future policy adjustments will depend entirely on the performance of core inflation data such as CPI.