The sudden escalation of the US-Iran situation has once again cast a shadow over the previously clearer expectations for peace talks. Combining the latest market dynamics, here is some analysis on several key issues:

1️⃣ Will the US-Iran situation further escalate?
From current signals, the situation is most likely to remain in a “standoff” and “testing” phase rather than slide into large-scale war.
There is a risk of escalation, but both sides have shown intentions to brake. The key latest information:
· Clear intention of “using force to promote talks”: The timing of this conflict is very delicate—happening right as the US and Iran are close to reaching a “one-page understanding memo” on nuclear issues. The US’s “mild punishment” (Trump’s words) seems more like maximum pressure on Iran, aiming to “give a sweet treat and then slap again,” forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table to sign peacefully.
· Critical “tone-setting” information: Despite the fighting, US officials (Central Command) have explicitly stated “no intention to seek escalation,” and Trump emphasized “a ceasefire is still valid.” This core tone-setting delineates the upper limit of the conflict, indicating both sides still maintain a dangerous balance of “neither war nor peace.”
· Follow-up focus: If Iran does not compromise, the US may reintroduce the previously failed “Freedom Plan” (escort commercial ships through the strait), which would be a further test of Iran’s bottom line.
2️⃣ Can Bitcoin withstand pressure and retake $80k?
In the short term, it faces shocks, but the selling pressure is largely due to profit-taking and panic, with medium- to long-term resilience still present.
· Why did it fall? As a risk asset, geopolitical conflicts trigger risk aversion, leading investors to sell Bitcoin. Also, Bitcoin’s decline from highs involves technical retracement needs, with overbought RSI triggering sell signals.
· An important bullish sign: Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin futures has been negative for 67 consecutive days, the longest on record in ten years. This means shorts pay daily fees, and any positive news (like “US-Iran talks show signs of progress”) could easily trigger a “short squeeze” rebound.
· Can it retake $80k? The key depends on news. If the situation remains under control and non-farm payrolls are moderate, the $79,614 current price (around $80k) has strong support. But a short squeeze explosion might require breaking through the 200-day moving average at $83,200 to establish strength.
3️⃣ How to interpret tonight’s non-farm payroll data? How will it affect rate cut expectations?
Regardless of the data’s outcome, the market impact could be amplified by huge volatility.
· Bullish or bearish? The market generally expects April US non-farm payrolls to increase by 62k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Considering the surprising March data (+178k), even if tonight’s data meets expectations, it’s unlikely to prompt the Fed to cut rates early.
· Fatal blow to rate cut expectations: The current core narrative isn’t “recession,” but “stagflation”—rising prices with stagnant economy. Geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices high, combined with month-over-month wage increases, and market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have nearly vanished. Unless tonight’s data unexpectedly tanks (e.g., very poor), the Fed will find it hard to justify a rate cut.
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Overall, all assets tonight will face extremely complex situations: volatile oil prices and tense geopolitical tensions provide bullish backgrounds, but strong or expected non-farm data will “cut the legs” from the already weak rate cut expectations, creating a severe conflict.
Therefore, the pricing of S&P 500 index options indicates about 1.3% of significant market volatility tonight. The Fed’s rate cut threshold has been seriously raised by geopolitical conflicts, and traders openly say the market has entered a “risk desert,” where no matter whether the outlook is right or wrong, it’s very easy to be “whipsawed.”