#Gate广场五月交易分享 Non-farm payrolls missed expectations, gold surged then fell back $50 for correction, next week CPI to hit

Yesterday, after the US-Iran clash, the market started fluctuating again, with negotiations and escalations ongoing. Key point: non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, gold surged then fell back $50 for correction. Next week, focus on CPI and terror data incoming.

Regarding yesterday’s trend, gold surged then fell back, volatility narrowed, waiting for a breakout. After retesting the 4680 level, it rebounded again, and during the US trading session, suddenly surged sharply, reaching 4750, then reversed sharply, falling back to hover around 4700. Overall, in April, gold’s bearish attack returned to the starting point, but this month saw a fierce counterattack, continuously recovering from recent declines.
There is still room for recovery above, aiming for the 4870 area. Meanwhile, the upward trend has not been fully established; overall, it’s a high-level correction. If it pulls back again, it could target the 4600 zone.
Next week’s trend: the close at 4715 this week, continue to watch for opportunities for consolidation and breakout. Last night, gold surged then fell back, barely holding 4700, entering a narrowing consolidation phase. Bulls and bears fluctuate, direction uncertain, waiting for a breakout. First target is the previous high at 4765; once broken, look for higher resistance at 4830. Of course, if it remains stagnant without rising, it may test the 4680 level again. If it breaks below this, further downside is possible, with support at 4600.
In terms of trading strategy, gold remains in a strong overall bullish rebound, and the upward momentum persists. Continue to look for rebound opportunities; focus on 4680 and 4600 for long positions.
In the short term, gold consolidates with volatility; short positions target 4765 and 4830.
On the news front, yesterday’s main news was: first, Trump signaled no change in negotiations, possibly ending the conflict; second, US non-farm payroll data was released, exceeding expectations, consistent with this week’s data. However, the Fed signaled rate cuts, which is another positive for gold, pushing it higher.
Second, the US-Iran situation reignited, both sides exchanged fire, sporadic clashes escalated, continuing to threaten the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump restarted the free plan, possibly changing the current status quo, strengthening crude oil, and causing gold to correct.
Next week’s news focus:
1. Watch next week’s US April CPI data and retail sales for April, two key indicators after non-farm payrolls, involving inflation and economic activity. Especially, CPI performance may again shake the market, particularly with Middle East geopolitical tensions and energy fears.
2. Monitor developments in the US-Iran situation; both sides are talking and fighting again, with risks of further escalation. It’s also the countdown to Trump’s set deadline—continue TACO or restart disputes, which could impact market expectations at any time.

Crude oil outlook:
Yesterday, US-Iran tensions fluctuated, with talks and clashes. Crude oil also saw ups and downs, with fierce battles between bulls and bears. This week closed at 94.7; next week, expect continued correction. If it pulls back, first look at 93. Confirm support at this level, then rebound, with resistance at 97.8. Once broken, look for higher resistance at 101.4. If it continues to fall, breaking below 93, support is at 88.6.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!