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If this keeps up, there might be a betting market on Polymarket about whether Trump is a man or a woman😂····
TACO is outdated; Wall Street is starting NACHO trading
BlockBeats news, May 9, as the Hormuz Strait crisis drags on, Wall Street is betting on a new trading model—NACHO, meaning "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens," to replace the previous TACO trading (Trump Always Chickens Out).
The core assumptions of NACHO trading include three layers: insurance companies will not insure ships crossing the Hormuz Strait, oil prices will stay high and push inflation, and the Federal Reserve will be unable to cut interest rates in the short term.
eToro market analyst Zavier Wong said, "This essentially means the market has given up on expecting a 'quick fix.' During most of the crisis, every ceasefire headline would trigger a sharp drop in oil prices, with traders continuously pricing in a solution that will never come. NACHO signifies that the market admits high oil prices are not a one-time shock but part of the current market environment."
Fidelity Global Investment Management analyst pointed out that TACO and NACHO trades will occur simultaneously in the second quarter—despite high energy prices, the S&P 500 index still hit record highs.
JPMorgan's latest report warns that global commercial crude oil inventories are expected to approach "operational stress levels" by early June, at which point the market will have to rely on additional supply or use storage facilities that must maintain minimum capacity, which could damage the oil supply infrastructure itself.