#IranUSConflictEscalates

Following the latest developments in the US-Iran situation, the market suddenly shifted from calm to a defensive stance.
Whenever reports of military activity around the Strait of Hormuz emerge, risk assets react immediately. The US stock market retreated from its intraday highs, oil prices experienced a sharp V-shaped reversal, and once again fell below $80K this level.
Personally, I believe the biggest issue right now is "uncertainty," not the actual conflict itself. Markets can usually digest bad news — what’s hardest for them to handle is not knowing how far the situation might escalate or how deep the impact could be.
What I am most closely watching is whether this situation remains localized or begins to seriously affect global energy flows. The Strait of Hormuz is critical for oil logistics, so even a slight escalation there could quickly influence broader market sentiment.
As for BTC, I still believe its structure is stronger than many expect. ETF capital inflows remain steady, and despite a pullback, buying activity continues to stay active around key support levels. If macro pressures ease even slightly, it could potentially retake $80K .
Tonight’s payroll data will most likely determine the short-term trend.
If the reported figures fall short of expectations, the market may once again start to anticipate more aggressive rate cuts, which could help crypto and stock markets rebound. But if employment data remains too strong, the Fed’s pressure narrative will persist, and risk assets may continue to be under pressure.
Right now, it feels like the market is caught between macro uncertainty and long-term bullish positions.
Usually, when both sides exert pressure simultaneously, volatility quickly amplifies.
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