Market Overview for May 9: Non-farm payrolls at 115K far exceeds expectations, sending the Nasdaq below 26,000 for the first time; Bitcoin recovers the $80k mark.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: A “Just Right” Jobs Report Gives the Market What It Wants Most

Friday morning at 8:30 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed its hand: April non-farm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, nearly double the expected median of 62,000.

The market’s reaction was immediate. The S&P 500 closed up 0.84% that day, reaching 7,398.93 points and setting a new all-time closing high. The Nasdaq soared 1.71%, closing at 26,247.08 points, marking the first time in human financial history that this index closed above 26,000. The Dow nearly stood still, rising only 12.19 points to 49,609.16, falling short of the 50,000 mark by less than 400 points—a “close but not enough” stance that has persisted for several days.

This week’s report card warrants a comprehensive review: the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week, the Nasdaq rose 4.5%, both marking their sixth consecutive week of gains—the longest streak since 2024. This is a full recovery from the lows to historic highs, completed by Wall Street three months after the outbreak of the Iran war.

But the reason why the 115,000 figure delighted the market isn’t because it’s large, but because it sits in that hardest-to-replicate zone—“neither good nor bad.”

Just right: 115,000 is nearly double the expectation, dispelling the market’s most direct concern that “war is destroying the labor market.” The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with no upward breakout. Healthcare added 37,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing 30,000, retail 22,000—employment pillars on the consumer side remain intact.

Not hot enough: Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% month-over-month, 3.6% annually, both below expectations of 0.3% and 3.8%. Wage growth is slowing, meaning the wage-inflation spiral isn’t picking up speed. The Fed, seeing this data, doesn’t need to raise interest rates.

Austan Goolsbee’s comment on CNBC is the most precise summary today: “The labor market has been basically stable for a year to a year and a half.” Neither collapsing nor overheating, this is exactly the labor market condition the market most needs in 2026.

Technology stocks led today’s gains, with the semiconductor sector digesting gains after AMD +18%, SMCI +25%, ARM +14% this week. But the overall performance of the Nasdaq indicates that major tech giants are still holding up the market. Datadog surged 30% after hours last night, and this was smoothly realized after the open today. The cybersecurity sector (Datadog, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) was one of the strongest subsectors on Friday, perfectly aligning with the main narrative of Agentic AI: as AI systems become more prevalent, tools to monitor and protect them become increasingly valuable.

The only big red hot potato is CoreWeave.

CoreWeave (CRWV) fell about 11-12% intraday on Friday, making it the most conspicuous contrarian blowout in today’s market.

From any financial metric, its Q1 results look fine: revenue of $2.08 billion, up 127% year-over-year, beating expectations of $1.97 billion; backlog approaching $100 billion; Q1 set a record for new contract signings, with over $40 billion in new commitments; the 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $12-13 billion remains unchanged.

The reason for the decline is only two words: guidance.

Q2 revenue guidance is $2.45-2.6 billion, with a median of $2.53B, below Wall Street consensus of $2.69 billion—about 6.5% lower, which is unforgivable at this valuation level. Meanwhile, the 2026 Capex lower bound was raised from $30 billion to $31 billion, citing “rising component prices,” similar to ARM, as inflation in the semiconductor supply chain is systematically eroding the costs for AI infrastructure companies. Losses widened to $740 million, more than doubling from last year’s $315 million.

But what truly nailed this earnings report today was an SEC disclosure: CEO Mike Intrator sold about 307,000 shares, totaling roughly $39 million, through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan on May 5 (two days before earnings). At the same time, EVP Chen Goldberg sold 19,222 shares.

Both transactions were within compliance. The existence of the 10b5-1 plan means these sales were scheduled months ago and unrelated to the earnings release. But the market doesn’t care about these technical details; it only sees one picture: the CEO converting $39 million worth of stock into cash before the earnings report, which then announced below-expectation guidance. The market’s typical reaction to this timing is: sell first, think later.

CEO Intrator was very calm about the decline, telling Reuters: “I don’t look at today’s market reaction as up or down. I am building the company.” Whether this is sincere or not, only time will tell.

But several key figures about CoreWeave deserve to be highlighted and shouldn’t be overshadowed by today’s -12%: $99 billion in backlog, 75% of the 2027 $30 billion annual revenue guidance already locked in with contracts, and capacity for 2026 already “virtually sold out.” CFO Nitin Agrawal said, “Our capacity in 2026 is almost sold out.” This isn’t a shrinking business; it’s a company spending faster than it earns, which in the AI infrastructure industry might actually be the right strategy.

Oil Prices: Below $100, the Holes in the Persian Gulf of 13 Million Barrels Still Unfilled

Brent closed near $97-99 on Friday, WTI around $91-94, generally staying below $100.

The impact of nighttime clashes was digested during the day, and the market has learned to apply a “discount pricing” to Iran battlefield news: each small-scale conflict causes a spike, then, after confirming no escalation, it falls back to previous levels. This discount rate continues to rise as the war persists.

JPMorgan’s analysis this week is worth quoting in full: Currently, only 4% of traffic flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 13 million barrels of daily oil supply missing. This isn’t just a “tightening” of supply; it’s nearly a complete cutoff. JPMorgan economists expect that as oil prices stay high, consumers will start adjusting their behavior, reducing energy consumption—demand destruction begins. This is the final self-regulating mechanism of oil prices, and the most painful.

When demand destruction becomes the way to balance supply and demand, it’s not the energy companies’ revenue that suffers, but the living standards of ordinary American households. Michigan consumer confidence at 55.2 is already signaling this.

Cryptocurrency: $80K Recovered Losses, Bitcoin Surges for the Third Consecutive Month Beyond Expectations

On May 8, Bitcoin experienced its third “in and out” drama at around $80k within a week.

Nighttime clashes (U.S.-Iran skirmishes near Hormuz) triggered about $300 million in forced futures liquidations, causing Bitcoin to open at $80,345 and briefly dip to $79,174, falling below $80,000. But the non-farm payroll data was released in the morning, with 115,000 new jobs far exceeding expectations, and wage growth below expectations. The renewed expectation of rate cuts led risk assets to rebound collectively. Bitcoin quickly recovered to around $80,500, and after a further rally with the Nasdaq, closed in the $81,000-81,500 range.

Additionally, Coinbase experienced hours-long system outages today due to AWS infrastructure issues, with a statement later confirming full recovery and ongoing investigation. On the most active day of trading—non-farm payroll release—an exchange outage was the most awkward technical incident today.

CoinDesk’s weekly review concluded: Bitcoin closed April at $76,300, completing what Fundstrat’s Tom Lee called “two consecutive months of gains” at Consensus 2026 last night. If May closes above $76,000, it will mark three consecutive months of gains, the threshold Lee defined as the official end of the “crypto winter.” Current prices are well above that line.

OTC desk data provides the most important structural evidence of this rally: Over the past 30 days, OTC balances shifted from +25,300 BTC (when Bitcoin was around $60,000 in early February) to about -25,000 BTC. This means that large buyers who couldn’t sell at $60,000 are now quietly moving chips off the market near $80,000. Supply is decreasing—not because retail investors are unwilling to sell, but because institutions are continuously absorbing.

The final technical resistance remains: $81,486 is the average cost basis for short-term holders, $82,228 is the 200-day moving average, and $83,700 is the average holding cost for spot ETF holders. These three numbers form the most dense resistance zone for Bitcoin today. Breaking through them signals the start of a structural bull market; bouncing back indicates the next test at $75,000.

Today’s summary: Non-farm payrolls provided the best close for the week, but Michigan confidence reveals the cost.

May 8, a “just right” jobs report capped this week’s most beautiful rebound.

U.S. stocks: S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 (+0.84%), Nasdaq closed above 26,000 at 26,247.08 (+1.71%). The Dow was nearly flat, missing the tech-driven rally today. This week, the S&P gained 2.3%, the Nasdaq 4.5%, marking six straight weeks of gains—the longest streak since 2024. CoreWeave fell about 12% (Q2 guidance below expectations + insider sale of $39 million before earnings), Datadog continued its after-hours rally.

Non-farm payrolls: 115,000 new jobs in April, well above 62,000 expected; unemployment rate 4.3%; hourly wages +0.2%/+3.6%, both below expectations, Goldilocks data—strong enough to prevent panic, weak enough to avoid rate hikes. Tech/Information sector -13,000, signaling ongoing AI-driven restructuring of employment.

Oil/Gold: Brent $97-99, WTI $91-94, staying below $100. JPMorgan: 13 million barrels per day missing in the Strait of Hormuz, demand destruction begins to be the only way to rebalance the market. Gold remains around $4,717-4,720.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin experienced intraday swings, dropping below $80,000 overnight and rebounding to $81,000-81,500 after non-farm payrolls, once again holding above $80K. The $81,486/$82,228/$83,700 resistance zone is the most critical price coordinate for the next phase. Coinbase experienced outages due to AWS issues.

Next week’s key calendar: Tuesday CPI (April inflation), Wednesday PPI. Whether inflation cools significantly due to falling oil prices is the most critical data set to determine if the Fed can change stance at the June 17 meeting (first chaired by Warsh). If CPI drops unexpectedly, rate cut expectations will reignite, and the current record high could have room to go higher; if inflation remains stubborn, Warsh’s first meeting might be a “surprise rate hike” candidate.

At least today, one thing is certain: the market’s six-week rally proves that even under the pressure of war, Brent at $126, Powell’s farewell, and MAG4 Capex of $725 billion, AI-driven profitability remains the most solid foundation at this valuation level. And that 13 million barrels per day gap is a crack beneath the foundation that has yet to be fully addressed.