#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin pulls back from high levels and falls into divergence, is it a mid-term adjustment or a trend reversal? Let's analyze the subsequent market from several angles.

First, look at the daily chart on the larger cycle. Recently, Bitcoin successfully broke through the previous high of $79,200. After the breakout, it didn't surge straight up but instead experienced a quick short-term shakeout to clear out floating positions.
After the shakeout, the price steadily stayed above $78,900, with a high touch near $80,900. Currently, both spot and futures have moved into the previous long-term sideways consolidation low zone. The overseas gap has been fully filled, and the larger bullish structure is particularly solid. Here’s a key takeaway: the low point of the previous long-term consolidation zone is the watershed for the market trend.
Back when the market bottomed at $65,200, the bears were crowded and aggressive, which laid the foundation for a short squeeze and rally. For this recovery, everyone just needs to watch the previous consolidation low of $80,500. Whether the price can effectively hold above it is the core signal of a trend reversal.

Reviewing the 2022 bear market reveals the pattern: each rebound failed to reach the previous consolidation low, then continued to decline. Only when the price truly stabilized at this critical level did the market structure fully reverse, marking the end of the bear phase and the beginning of a new rally.
Right now, everyone is anxious—can the $78,900 support hold? If it breaks, will the final drop everyone expects really happen? Where is the truly safe zone for bottom fishing? Those with no positions fear chasing high, while those holding fear missing the rally—everyone is caught in a dilemma. This mindset is widely understood!
In the short term, just keep a close eye on the $79,200 level. As long as the daily chart doesn’t break below this effectively, even with normal pullbacks, the downside is limited. There’s no need to panic and cut losses blindly. Even if the price temporarily breaks below in the short term, don’t rush to short. Wait for the daily candle to close and confirm the second wave’s trend before making decisions. Don’t fall into the main force’s short-term trap of诱空 (诱导空头,诱空洗盘). Like last week’s move around $76,100, after a slight dip, there was no volume-driven plunge but sideways consolidation—classic诱空洗盘 (trap shakeout). Blindly following the short side only results in stop-loss hunts and repeated cycles.
Looking at the capital sentiment, over the past month, market open interest has been rising, with increasing short positions. Retail traders are collectively bearish, but institutional funds continue to accumulate against the trend. The main strategy remains unchanged: first sweep out the contrarian short positions, then pull back to shake out short-term chasing longs. When everyone is bearish and sentiment is one-sided, the market will rally again, restoring the trend—classic双杀 (long and short trap).
This correction is a normal technical adjustment without major negative news. No need to scare yourself. Currently, retail traders’ average cost basis is around $78,500, which is a key short-term support level. During this consolidation phase, less trading, less following the crowd, and patience for signals are the best approach.

Now that Bitcoin has risen above $80k and touched $80,500, everyone is asking two questions:
How much further can the pullback be? Will there be one last deep dip to dig a trap? Where is the safe zone for bottom fishing?
Based on market supply and demand and historical cycle patterns, here’s a straightforward explanation:
This rally has been a gradual ascent driven mainly by two factors:
1. Contract short positions continuously closing, pushing the market upward;
2. Spot supply and demand have completely reversed, significantly reducing selling pressure and providing a foundation for the rally. Relying solely on futures funding cannot sustain a long-term surge.
Why is spot selling pressure so low? First, institutions and whales quietly accumulated large positions at lows, with Bitcoin reserves on exchanges decreasing, locking in a lot of chips.
Second, retail traders preemptively panicked and exited early, releasing selling pressure, so the market naturally can’t fall much.
The current market pattern is typical of a “easy to rise but hard to fall” scenario. Ironically, a bunch of bearish follow-along chips have become a push factor for the rally, which is the fundamental reason for the lack of a deep correction.
Looking at the four-year cycle, unless a black swan event occurs, even if there’s one last dip, the correction space is very limited—no need to be overly bearish.
Historical patterns show that the bottom of a bear market is where chips are densely exchanged. Reviewing early February, the $66,100 level saw massive turnover, serving as a strong support bottom line. So, if there’s a final dip, the optimal bottom-fishing zone is: $65,100–$66,100.

Practical strategy: Hold your core position steady and wait for volume to pick up on the right side before adding.
Here’s a simple, robust plan: if you already set a core position around $60,100, just hold it patiently—no reckless adding or reducing, no frequent tinkering.
If you have spare funds, don’t rush to buy on the left side. The market is still in the early stage of transitioning from a bear to a consolidation phase, not a full bull. Wait patiently for volume to stabilize on the right side, and only add in stages once the pattern is clear, avoiding risks of choppy sideways moves.
Key signals for adding positions: first, test resistance at $84,000; second, see if $80,500 support holds; third, confirm a steady hold above the $90,700 key level. Only when these conditions are met can you consider the low around $64,900—likely to be rarely seen again. Until then, the market will keep oscillating around your cost zone. Staying calm is the most important.