#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Bulls Have Reached Their Station!

BTC has rebounded from lows and broken above the 80k mark. Many retail investors are cheering for the return of the bull market, following the trend to chase longs and heavily buy the dip, fearing to miss out on the new wave of market dividends.
But a calm analysis through technical chart structures and historical bull-bear cycle patterns reveals: this is merely a corrective rebound during the bear market decline, a typical trap to lure in longs, not a trend reversal. The current rise is just an opportunity to free trapped positions at high levels and for bears to position themselves at a high point. Blindly chasing longs will only turn you into market fodder again.
1. Short-term Market: The rebound hits a critical resistance, upward space is fully locked
Since the recent low, BTC has been rebounding and rising toward the key resistance at 83,000, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend and the dense lower boundary zone of the previous long-term sideways trapped positions.
This level faces dual strong selling pressure: the previous 80k–90k trapped chips are now in a position to be unlocked, with strong profit-taking willingness, continuously suppressing further upward movement;
In bear market rebounds, the 61.8% retracement level has always been the ceiling for rallies, rarely broken through strongly in one go.
From volume perspective, this rebound has seen no new capital entering; it relies solely on existing funds grouping together to push prices up, with no volume expansion, indicating no real institutional accumulation—just short-term emotional speculation.
In simple terms: the 80k–84,000 range is the current market’s red line of resistance. The upward space is extremely limited, and the risk of a downward pullback has quietly increased.
2. Cycle Outlook: The 2026 bear market is far from over; don’t be fooled by short-term rebounds
Setting aside short-term candlestick fluctuations, from the perspective of BTC’s decade-long bull-bear cycle logic, there is no condition for a bottoming and bull run at present.
Reviewing the three complete past bear markets, they follow a fixed pattern: an average decline period of about 54 weeks, with overall drops exceeding 80%. The current fall from the 2025 high to now, regardless of duration or magnitude, has not yet reached the standard bottom of past bear markets. Based on cycle projections, the bear market still has at least about 5 months to run, and the true bottom has not yet arrived.
Many tend to make a fatal mistake: mistaking a rebound within a bear market for the start of a bull run. History has repeatedly shown that in a major bear phase, every strong rebound is just a buildup for a larger subsequent decline. The current lively market is just fog obscuring the view; the overall downward cycle trend has never changed.
3. Practical Trading Strategy: Don’t chase high, short on rallies, stick to bear market logic
Once the market’s essence is clear, the trading approach becomes straightforward: avoid emotional FOMO, only pursue high-probability trades.
Never blindly chase longs above 80,000; once the false rally ends, a quick fall will lack support, and chasing high will only result in standing on the sidelines.
The ideal shorting zone is around 80,000–84,000, which offers a great risk-reward ratio; set reasonable stop-losses above key resistance levels, no need to hold the position through the game.
Support levels below include the first support at 74,000–75,000, and the second at 68,000–70,000. A further decline is likely, possibly testing previous lows.
Maintain a light position, respect the volatility of the bear market, avoid heavy holdings and all-in bets, strictly manage risk, and never fight the cycle trend.
4. Final Words
The biggest trap in the crypto world is being blinded by short-term rebounds during a bear market, mistaking rebounds for reversals. Candlestick charts can deceive, emotions can hype, but the laws of historical cycles, chip structures, and capital logic never lie.
The current rise in BTC is just a fleeting correction, not a sign of a return to a bull market. Don’t be carried away by market impatience; see the big picture clearly, refuse to chase high, and during cyclical downturns, all wild celebrations will eventually return to fundamentals.