Global energy markets for May 4–9 remained dominated by Hormuz, but pressure has now spread from crude oil to LNG, refining and fuel demand.

📌 Oil prices were highly volatile this week as markets kept reacting to the US-Iran conflict and fragile ceasefire expectations. Brent briefly moved into the USD 109–112/bbl range, then fell toward USD 101 as negotiation hopes improved, before recovering slightly into the weekend. Despite the net weekly decline, prices remain far above pre-conflict levels.
🔎 The decline in spot prices does not mean the physical market has loosened. API reported an 8.1 million-barrel crude draw, while EIA showed a 2.3 million-barrel decline, with gasoline and distillate inventories also weakening. This suggests the physical market remains tight, especially as flows through Hormuz have not clearly normalized.
⛽ The US continues to emerge as one of the main beneficiaries of the current energy shock. US petroleum product exports reached 8.224 million bpd, the highest level on record, as Europe and Asia looked for alternatives to disrupted Middle East supply. Refining margins also surged as global markets faced shortages of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline.
🔥 Gas markets are showing a sharper split between the US and the rest of the world. Henry Hub stayed near USD 2.75–2.80/MMBtu thanks to healthy storage and abundant domestic supply, while Asian JKM hovered around USD 18 and European TTF near USD 15.7. This spread strengthens the advantage of US LNG, but increases cost pressure on energy-importing economies.
⚠️ High energy prices are starting to trigger a demand response. The IEA lowered its 2026 oil demand outlook, reflecting early signs of demand destruction in Asia and Europe as fuel costs remain elevated. Some regions are also turning back to coal because LNG is too expensive, raising short-term risks for energy inflation and emissions.
✅ In the coming weeks, Hormuz remains the key variable. If a real ceasefire takes hold and shipping flows recover, oil could fall quickly into a lower range. If the conflict escalates again, Brent still risks returning to the USD 110–120/bbl area, while international LNG prices and refining margins could stay supported.
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