#Gate广场五月交易分享 How are market expectations for tonight's non-farm payroll data? According to economists surveyed by the media, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to report an increase of 62k jobs in April at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. Although this figure appears weak compared to the hot employment performance of the previous month, it may still be enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4.3%. Based on statistical samples, the institutional forecast range varies from a high of 133k (Soughbay Research) to a low of -15k (Citibank).

Some analysts believe that the 178k jobs added in March clearly exaggerated the actual growth rate; after removing distortions related to strikes, the average employment growth over the previous two months may have been only 20k to 30k.
Overall, while the labor market is undoubtedly cooling, it remains broadly stable and resilient despite many challenges. “The core message is similar to previous employment reports, or even more pronounced,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the American Bankers Association. “In terms of non-farm employment, the momentum in the labor market has indeed become more solid.”
Tinsley states that to understand the current labor market, one must look beyond surface data. He referenced the commonly used “K-shaped curve” to describe the current economic situation—where the benefits of prosperity are mainly concentrated among high-income groups. “There are a series of very interesting divergences in the current economy.
Overall, whether it’s wages or employment numbers, the situation appears quite stable, but the ‘K-shaped’ characteristics are everywhere,” he pointed out. “Although the surface data looks robust, there are significant divergences in the current economy.” One area he specifically mentioned is wage growth—April’s average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 3.8% year-over-year, higher than the previous 3.5%, but this does not indicate where income is flowing. Data from Bank of America shows that the top third of earners saw after-tax wages grow by 6% in April, while the lowest earners only saw a 1.5% increase. Considering that the Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5% through March, this data is particularly painful, indicating that the real income of low-income groups has actually decreased net.
“Beneath the surface, income distribution issues are crucial,” Tinsley said. The Bank of America economist further pointed out that hiring differences by company size are becoming apparent, with small business hiring declining over the past three months.
How are some leading employment indicators performing?
From some leading indicators released before the non-farm report, ADP announced on Wednesday that private sector employment in April was 109k, known as “Small Non-Farm,” below the expected 120k. However, Pantheon Macroeconomics warned investors not to over-interpret this data, noting that over the past 12 months, the average absolute error between ADP’s initial estimates and the initial non-farm data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been as high as 85k. Pantheon’s own model shows that the preliminary estimate for April non-farm payrolls is slightly below 100k; considering the approximately 20k calendar effect from Easter holidays, the final employment figure might be around 75k.
In terms of initial jobless claims, the average for the week of the April non-farm reference period was 215k (compared to 205k in March), and continuing claims fell to 62k (from 133k in March); in the following week, initial claims further dropped below 200k, which some models view as a positive signal. However, analysts at Barclays Bank pointed out that the strong growth predicted by standard models based on claims data partly stems from the inference that the high March data will generate momentum.
In fact, Barclays analysts themselves are not optimistic about tonight’s non-farm report. The institution expects nearly zero growth this month, citing factors such as worker strikes, weather impacts, and compensations for the unusually favorable March corporate survival model adjustments, all of which will exert pressure on the data. Goldman Sachs states that positive factors supporting tonight’s report include: layoffs—average initial unemployment claims in April remained low at around 210k, consistent with March; big data—Goldman’s tracking of alternative employment growth indicators showed steady performance in April, averaging +90k.
Reasons supporting a weaker report include: worker strikes—BLS’s strike report indicates that a new strike could reduce April employment growth by 1,400; slowdown in government hiring—Goldman expects government employment to decrease by 5,000, reflecting a reduction of 10k federal jobs (partially offset by a 5,000 increase in state and local government employment). Ongoing federal hiring freezes will continue to suppress federal employment data. Additionally, although ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to cast a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook, the direct impact of this war on April’s non-farm data is expected to be limited.
Many analysts believe that any meaningful spillover effects on the labor market will take some time to manifest. Nonetheless, due to increased uncertainty, companies’ willingness to hire seems to have weakened. During the survey period, Iran-related conflicts dominated headlines, and some believe this could hinder hiring.
The Oxford Economics Research Institute pointed out that we should not be complacent just because war risks have not yet been reflected in hard data. Analysts generally agree that energy shocks are likely to impact inflation prospects, which has become an obstacle for the Federal Reserve to continue supporting easing policies (cutting interest rates) in the short term.