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After oil prices hit $114, the whole world is waiting for Iran's statement! Bitcoin has become the most panicked one.
People used to say:
"Bitcoin is detached from traditional finance."
Now, when crude oil rises, BTC is the first to weaken.
After the Fouchairah oil tank attack, the market finally realizes—it's the Middle East situation that truly rules the K-line. Brent crude oil directly surged to $114, and risk assets collectively started performing "parachute jumps."
Who is the biggest loser?
Not the US stocks.
Not gold.
But Bitcoin, which just crossed $80k.
Many originally thought Trump's "Freedom Plan" would be the biggest positive this year. The logic was very attractive:
Lower oil prices → ease inflation → Federal Reserve cuts interest rates → dollar weakens → funds re-enter risk assets.
But as soon as the plan started, the Middle East gave a "forced server restart."
Now, Trump is very much like a DJ about to hold a concert, all the music is ready, but suddenly there's a power outage.
And the market's current focus isn't the war itself, but the Oman negotiations.
Because this is the only window that might bring oil prices back to calm.
If Iran is willing to loosen up on uranium enrichment, the US might send some signals of easing sanctions. The market will immediately start trading:
"Oil falls back + global supply recovers + risk appetite warms."
At that point, BTC is very likely to hit new all-time highs again.
But the question is—why would Iran easily make concessions now?
The higher the oil price, the stronger Iran's bargaining chips at the negotiation table.
So right now, it's actually a game of:
"Who can't hold out against inflation first."
The US fears oil prices.
Iran holds its chips.
Europe fears recession.
Traders fear liquidation.
Only gold is laughing the happiest.
Many people ask me how to operate now.
My approach is a "three-stage" plan:
First stage: Avoid high leverage.
The market volatility has now entered the phase of "news overrides technicals."
Second stage: Watch whether crude oil drops below $100.
If it drops back, it shows the market believes the situation is under control.
Third stage: Only buy BTC on dips, don't chase rallies.
Because now it’s increasingly like a "liquidity barometer."
In one sentence:
It's no longer Bitcoin deciding the market,
but the Strait of Hormuz deciding the K-line. #比特币站稳8万关口