After the sudden change in US-Iran tensions, I realize the market is brewing for a bigger move.

Many people haven't noticed that the market has recently entered a "high volatility mode."
The reason is simple:
Geopolitical risks + rate cut bets, both erupting simultaneously.
Last night, after the US military retaliated against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the market immediately shifted to a risk-averse state. BTC dropped below 80k, US stocks pulled back, and crude oil experienced intense fluctuations.
But what's truly interesting is:
The market didn't completely panic.
Because funds are still waiting for something more important — non-farm payroll data.
Now, all of Wall Street knows that as soon as the US economy begins to slow down, the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates.
And rate cuts are the real big weapon against risk assets.
So tonight's data is very critical.
If non-farm payrolls are weak, the market will quickly reinforce expectations of rate cuts, and BTC might retake 80k.
But if employment remains strong, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates high, and the market will come under pressure again.
Many are now asking: Will the US and Iran escalate fully?
Currently, the probability seems limited.
Because both sides are more like engaging in a "borderline game."
The US needs to maintain deterrence, Iran needs to show toughness, but no one really wants to blow oil prices sky-high.
So, in the short term, the bigger variable for the market is actually the Federal Reserve.
To put it simply, all assets worldwide are revolving around one thing:
When will the dollar start to loosen?
And BTC, essentially, is a barometer of global liquidity sentiment.
The current market situation is very much like the night before a storm.
Some have already begun to retreat, while others are quietly adding positions.
And the real big move often happens during the most chaotic times in the market. #美伊冲突再升级