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CryptoQuant: Against the backdrop of a "bear market rebound," Bitcoin's profit-taking pressure may further increase
ChainCatcher reports, according to The Block, that on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant states that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since early April to a three-month high, but research director Julio Moreno still considers it a “bear market rebound.”
He pointed out that Bitcoin holders realized an average daily profit of 14.6k BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. Short-term holder profit-taking and spending ratios have remained above 1 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a “clear profit-taking zone.” Moreno said that the 30-day rolling net profit has reached +20k BTC, the first positive since December 22, 2025, marking a structural inflection point in the bear market dynamics.
However, this level is far below the 130k to 200k BTC range typically seen during bull market confirmation periods. The current unrealized profit rate is 18%, and historical experience suggests that high levels of unrealized profits increase the risk of a correction. But persistent strong demand for perpetual futures, moderate spot demand contraction, and low exchange inflows indicate that a correction may take some time to materialize.