Global Stock Market Overview, May 4–9 – Earnings and AI keep the rally intact, while oil and CPI remain the key variables

📌 Global equities ended the May 4–9 week in a more positive position than expected, even after early pressure from renewed US-Iran tensions and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The oil shock only triggered a short-term pullback before being outweighed by support from earnings season and large-cap technology stocks.
💡 In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to set new highs, while the Dow Jones also recovered, helping the market extend its multi-week winning streak. The key point was not only the index gains, but also the fact that investors were still willing to buy dips as corporate earnings remained strong enough to offset geopolitical risk.
🔎 Q1 earnings have become the market’s main support. S&P 500 EPS rose roughly 27–28% year over year, with around 83–84% of companies beating expectations and 9 of 11 sectors posting positive earnings growth. This suggests the current rally is no longer driven only by AI expectations, but is increasingly being reflected in actual business results.
⚙️ However, the AI trade is becoming more selective. Companies that can prove real revenue growth from cloud, advertising, or AI infrastructure are being rewarded more strongly, while names with heavy capital spending and less visible returns are facing pressure. This is a healthy signal, as capital is no longer buying the entire AI story blindly.
🌍 Outside the US, Europe was mostly flat as higher oil prices and Middle East risk capped upside, while Japan remained a bright spot in Asia as the Nikkei hit a fresh record before easing slightly. Emerging Markets and small-caps also showed broader participation, suggesting the bull market is gaining better breadth.
⚠️ The main risks for the coming week remain oil, inflation, and the Fed’s reaction. If oil stays stable and US CPI does not come in hotter than expected, equities may keep a mild upward bias and test new highs. But if the Middle East situation escalates again or oil returns to elevated levels, inflation pressure could push yields higher and trigger short-term profit-taking in growth stocks.
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