Global metals market overview for May 4–9 – Copper remains the main driver, but market divergence is becoming clearer

📌 The metals market stayed broadly constructive this week, but the rally was no longer evenly distributed. Copper remained the key focus, with 3-month LME prices holding around 13,300–13,500 USD/t, supported by supply risks from Grasberg, lower SHFE inventories, and long-term demand from electrification, power grids, data centers, and AI.
🔎 The key point is that the copper story has become more balanced. Prices are still reflecting a premium for physical supply risk, but high LME inventories and expectations of a small surplus in 2026 make a one-way rally harder to sustain. This leaves copper in a high-price environment, but still vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if no new supply shock appears.
⚙️ Nickel stood out as a separate bright spot due to policy factors in Indonesia. Lower ore quota approvals for 2026 have increased attention on supply-tightening risks, while aluminium remains supported by China’s capacity cap and stable demand from green industrial supply chains. Zinc also has a stronger base than lead due to expectations of a mild deficit, showing clear divergence across base metals.
🟡 Precious metals saw wide volatility during the week. Gold and silver initially came under pressure as higher oil prices raised inflation concerns and supported the USD, before rebounding on safe-haven demand linked to Iran tensions and shipping risks around Hormuz. However, the Fed’s hawkish tone means upside momentum still depends heavily on inflation data and geopolitical developments.
🏗️ In ferrous metals, iron ore looked more cautious due to high Chinese port inventories and weak property demand. In contrast, US HRC and plate markets remained tighter, supported by mill disruptions, higher scrap costs, and a localized recovery in domestic demand.
✅ Overall, May 4–9 showed that metals still have a solid support base, but the focus has shifted from a broad rally to more selective moves by metal. Copper, nickel, and tin remain favored if supply risks persist, while iron ore and parts of the precious metals complex will stay more sensitive to China, the Fed, and oil-market developments.
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