BTC drops below 80,000! The US and Iran suddenly "fire," will tonight's non-farm payrolls bury the bulls?

Last night's market was just like a late-night hotpot suddenly losing power. One second everyone was shouting "bulls will return soon," the next, the US-Iran situation suddenly escalated, US troops and Iran clashed in the Strait of Hormuz, and US stocks immediately plummeted, Bitcoin directly transformed from "digital gold" into "digital nightmare." Many retail investors just woke up to find their accounts switched from "wealth freedom" to "free fall."
What truly scares the market is not just a conflict, but the possibility of continuous escalation. What is the Strait of Hormuz? It’s the major artery for global oil transportation. When tensions rise here, oil prices go wild like a cat with its tail stepped on. What does the capital market fear most? Uncertainty. If the Middle East continues to escalate, all global risk assets will take a hit first.
But the more exciting event is tonight—the non-farm payroll data.
The market is now in a state of split personality: if the data is too good, the Fed won’t cut rates; if the data is too bad, recession fears will surge. In other words, Wall Street’s attitude towards data is like dating: too excellent, too hard to control; too average, no future prospects.
If tonight’s non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, US Treasury yields may continue to rise, and US stocks and BTC will face short-term pressure. Because the market will reprice "higher interest rates for longer." But if the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, rate cut expectations will heat up instantly, and BTC is likely to have a violent rebound, pushing back above $80,000.
The most magical thing about Bitcoin now is that it’s no longer just an asset in the crypto world, but increasingly resembles a "global liquidity barometer." As long as the market believes the Fed will keep pumping liquidity, BTC dares to perform a "takeoff in place."
So tonight’s focus isn’t just the non-farm payroll data itself, but how Wall Street will interpret it. After all, in today’s market, even bad news can be understood as good news. The worst off are retail investors, who watch geopolitical events during the day, monitor non-farm payrolls at night, and study Powell’s facial expressions at dawn—living like global macro traders. #比特币跌破8万美元