BTC plunges late at night! The US-Iran conflict is just the appetizer; the real show starts tonight

Last night, the global markets staged a classic "black swan test flight."
The US-Iran situation suddenly heated up, with US troops and Iran directly clashing in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market instantly shifted to risk mode. US stocks retreated from highs, BTC dropped below $80k, but oil prices soared. Many crypto investors are watching candlestick charts while studying Middle Eastern maps, as if they’re about to join the UN Security Council at any moment.
But the real nuclear bomb in the market is actually tonight’s non-farm payroll data.
Because right now, the most tangled question on Wall Street is: When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
In the past, everyone worried about a recession; now, everyone is more worried about an economy that’s “not recession enough.” As long as US employment remains strong, the Fed has reason to keep interest rates high.
And high interest rates, for high-volatility assets like BTC, are like hellish weight training in the gym.
If tonight’s non-farm data exceeds expectations and is strong, US Treasury yields may continue to rise, the dollar will strengthen, and BTC is likely to remain under pressure in the short term.
But if the data is weak, the market will immediately enter “pre-celebration of rate cuts” mode. By then, BTC might not only fail to return to $80k but could even launch a counterattack.
Many people are now asking whether the US-Iran situation will escalate further.
The answer is: it’s possible, but neither side wants a full-blown out-of-control situation.
The US doesn’t want the Middle East to blow up completely, because runaway oil prices would directly impact US inflation. Iran also knows that a full-scale escalation would be too costly. So, currently, it’s more like “limited confrontation.”
But the problem is, the market doesn’t care whether it’s a limited conflict or not; it only recognizes volatility.
Especially quantitative funds, which automatically sell off at the first sign of risk.
So recently, the market feels like a thriller: during the day, watching geopolitics; at night, watching non-farm data; and in the early morning, listening to Federal Reserve officials’ speeches.
The most absurd thing is that Bitcoin, which claims to be detached from traditional finance, is now being led around by US data every day.
In the end, the crypto world has become just like Wall Street. #美伊冲突再升级