Hormuz suddenly erupts in gunfire! Oil prices V reverse, BTC plunges, tonight's non-farm payroll report will determine the bull or bear fate

The biggest feeling in the market yesterday was just four words: so exciting.
Just as signs of easing in US-Iran talks appeared, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces intercepted and responded to Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East powder keg was reignited instantly.
The initial reaction to crude oil was the most genuine.
WTI oil prices surged sharply at one point because the market was worried that if something went wrong in the Strait of Hormuz, 20% of global oil transportation could be affected. But then oil prices fell sharply again because investors realized: both sides are currently "controlling the scale of the conflict."
But BTC wasn't so lucky.
Bitcoin directly fell below $80k, and many contract traders were taught a lesson overnight. The reason is simple—BTC is increasingly resembling "high-volatility tech stocks" rather than traditional safe-haven assets.
As long as market risk appetite declines, it’s more vulnerable to losses first.
But what truly determines the trend isn’t the Middle East, but tonight’s non-farm payroll report.
Now, Wall Street’s logic is very simple:
Strong non-farm → economy too hot → no rate cuts → US stocks and BTC under pressure;
Weak non-farm → economy cooling → rate cut expectations rise → risk assets rebound.
So tonight’s data is even more important than the Middle East situation.
Currently, the market fears most is “strong and inflationary again,” which means the Fed might remain hawkish. If that happens, BTC might not only test $80k but also $75k.
But if employment slows significantly, market sentiment could reverse instantly.
Don’t forget, Wall Street’s best skill is: panic yesterday, buy the dip today.
So now it’s not about who screams the loudest, but who has the most cash on hand.
The next 24 hours could decide the trend for May. #美伊冲突再升级