The US-Iran negotiations just showed some hope, and then the US military opened fire! Global capital markets turned upside down overnight

The market was originally quite optimistic.
Everyone thought that since the US and Iran started signaling peace talks, the Middle East situation might ease, oil prices could pressure less, and the Federal Reserve might even feel more comfortable cutting interest rates.
But overnight, the plot reversed.
The US Central Command confirmed that US forces intercepted and retaliated against Iran’s attack in the Strait of Hormuz.
The market instantly shifted from “peaceful fantasy” to “risk aversion mode.”
Who suffered the most?
Of course, high-valued assets.
The Nasdaq retreated, BTC fell below 80k, and altcoins were hit so hard they doubted their lives.
Many people started to worry: could this escalate into a full-scale conflict?
Currently, the probability seems low.
Because the US doesn’t want oil prices to spiral out of control, and Iran doesn’t want its economy to be further pressured.
Both sides are now more like “fighting while negotiating.”
But the market won’t wait for your analysis.
Funds will run first.
Especially now, with the Federal Reserve hesitating to cut rates, global liquidity is already tight.
Once geopolitical risks rise, funds will naturally flow back into the dollar and US Treasuries first.
And tonight’s non-farm payroll data might become the real direction setter.
If employment remains strong, the market will think the US economy is too resilient, and the Fed has no need to cut rates.
This is not friendly to BTC.
But if non-farm payrolls come in below expectations, Wall Street might reprice the “rate cut logic,” and risk assets could see a recovery.
So the most amusing situation now is:
Global investors are watching the Strait of Hormuz and whether American workers are losing their jobs at the same time.
The Middle East determines oil prices, and US bulls and bears determine BTC.
Financial markets are sometimes more absurd than TV dramas. #美伊冲突再升级