After Bitcoin falls below 80k, I realize the most dangerous thing in the market is not war

Many people think that last night's market plunge was due to the US-Iran conflict.
Actually, that's only half correct.
What truly scares the market is not the US military counterattack on Iran, but the simultaneous appearance of “high interest rates + geopolitical risks.”
This is the most headache-inducing combination on Wall Street.
After the U.S. Central Command confirmed the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the market's first reaction was to seek safety. US stocks retreated, Bitcoin plunged, gold surged.
But soon everyone realized:
Oil prices did not continue to soar.
This indicates the market believes the situation is temporarily under control.
So why is Bitcoin still falling?
Because now the market has started to worry: if the Middle East situation causes oil prices to rise again, U.S. inflation could rebound.
This means that the Federal Reserve will find it even more difficult to cut interest rates.
So the question is:
Who suffers the most if high interest rates last longer?
Of course, high-valued assets.
This round of Bitcoin decline is essentially due to liquidity pressure.
And tonight’s non-farm payroll data is the key to liquidity.
If non-farm payrolls are too strong, the Fed will continue to stay hawkish, and Bitcoin may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
But if employment slows noticeably, the market will once again believe in “rate cuts within the year.”
At that point, risk assets are very likely to rebound across the board.
So tonight’s data is actually more important than war news.
Because war affects sentiment, while interest rates affect valuation.
The market now is very much like students before an exam:
Appearing to browse news on their phones on the surface, but actually all waiting for the results inside.
And tonight at 8:30, it’s time to reveal the answers. #比特币跌破8万美元