Non-farm payrolls night is here! Can BTC stage a comeback? Tonight may decide May’s market trend

Right now, the entire market is waiting for one thing: the U.S. non-farm payrolls.
Because over the past 48 hours, global capital markets have been hit by two shocks at the same time:
First, the U.S.-Iran situation suddenly escalated;
Second, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts wavered again.
After the U.S. Central Command confirmed the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, risk appetite for capital clearly fell. BTC broke through 80,000, U.S. stocks pulled back, and crude oil put on a super V-shaped rebound.
But the real ultimate variable is actually U.S. economic data.
Why?
Because the market logic right now is especially simple:
The stronger the economy, the less the Federal Reserve dares to cut rates;
The less the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the greater the pressure on BTC.
So if tonight’s non-farm payrolls continue to come in extremely strong, the market will start worrying again about “higher for longer.”
In simple terms: interest rates stay high for longer.
Then BTC will very likely continue to trade in a choppy range and pull back in the short term.
But if non-farm payrolls are clearly below expectations, things could be completely the opposite.
The market will quickly price in rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and both tech stocks and BTC could get a chance to repair and bounce back.
Now many people are asking: Can BTC get back to 80,000?
Actually, the key isn’t BTC—it’s the U.S. dollar.
As long as the U.S. dollar index starts to fall, risk-asset sentiment will recover.
And don’t forget: behind this bull market, the biggest buyers are actually institutional ETFs.
As long as ETFs don’t continue to flow out, BTC will most likely still be in a bull-market structure with fluctuations.
The most surreal thing about the market right now is:
Whether the Middle East fights or not affects oil prices;
Whether Americans go to work or not affects BTC.
At this point, financial markets have become more and more like a big reality show. #ADP就业超预期降息再推后