Strait of Hormuz "accidental gunfire," the global market enters a high-risk moment

How important is the Strait of Hormuz?
One-fifth of the world's oil transportation passes through here.
So last night, after the U.S. military intercepted and responded to Iran, the entire market instantly became tense.
Because the thing everyone fears most is:
Oil prices spiraling out of control.
If crude oil prices surge again, U.S. inflation could rebound, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans will be further delayed.
So last night's market logic was very unified:
Sell risk assets first.
BTC dropped below $80k, U.S. stocks retreated from highs, and funds flowed heavily into gold and the dollar.
But interestingly, oil prices later fell back.
This indicates that the market still believes: neither side will fully escalate.
This is actually the most realistic scenario.
The U.S. doesn't want to fall into a new Middle Eastern quagmire, and Iran can't afford a long-term full-scale conflict.
So a more likely scenario is:
Localized friction continues, but overall remains controllable.
And tonight's real risk is actually the non-farm payrolls report.
If employment data is too strong, the market will think the U.S. economy is still overheating, and the Federal Reserve may continue to keep interest rates high.
Then, BTC's short-term pressure will further increase.
But if non-farm payrolls show a clear slowdown, expectations for rate cuts will reignite, and risk assets could rebound sharply.
Many retail investors' most common mistake now is attributing all problems to war.
In fact, the core driving force of financial markets is always liquidity.
And the Federal Reserve is the overall valve of global liquidity.
Tonight, this valve may once again influence the entire world. #油价过山车