Tonight's non-farm payroll report could be more dangerous than the Middle East situation

Many people are still frantically scrolling through Middle East news.
But those who truly understand the market are now watching the U.S. Department of Labor.
Because tonight's non-farm data could determine the entire May market trend.
Why is this so important?
Because the most critical question in the market right now is:
When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
If employment remains strong, the Fed will have reason to keep interest rates high.
And high interest rates are not friendly to BTC.
Adding to that, the sudden escalation of the US-Iran situation further reduces market risk appetite, so it’s not surprising that BTC fell below $80k last night.
But here’s the key.
The market has already partially priced in some negative news.
In other words, as long as tonight’s non-farm report isn’t wildly off, risk assets might actually see a “bad news priced in and then rebound.”
This is the most classic Wall Street tactic.
Many people think that the worse the news, the more the market drops.
In fact, often the real decline happens during the expectation phase, not the outcome phase.
Currently, although tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, both sides are still holding back.
Because everyone knows that if the Hormuz Strait remains unstable for a long time, the global energy market will go out of control.
So in the short term, it’s more likely to be emotional shocks rather than full-scale war.
What truly determines whether BTC can retake $80k is liquidity.
As long as the market regains confidence in rate cuts, BTC still has a chance.
The most unfortunate group right now is actually high-leverage traders.
During the day, they watch war news; at night, they wait for the non-farm data; in the early morning, they wait for liquidation notices.
This generation of investors has almost trained their mental resilience to special forces levels. #Gate广场五月交易分享