After the sudden change in US-Iran tensions, I realize the market is brewing for a bigger move

Many people haven't realized that the market has recently entered a "high volatility mode."
The reason is simple:
Geopolitical risk + rate cut speculation, both erupting simultaneously.
Last night, after the US military retaliated against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, the market immediately shifted to a risk-averse state. BTC fell below 80k, US stocks retreated, and crude oil experienced intense volatility.
But what's truly interesting is:
The market hasn't completely panicked.
Because funds are still waiting for something more important—the non-farm payroll data.
Now, all of Wall Street knows that as soon as the US economy begins to slow down, the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates.
And rate cuts are the real big weapon against risk assets.
So tonight's data is very critical.
If non-farm payrolls are weak, the market will quickly reinforce expectations of rate cuts, and BTC might regain the 80k level.
But if employment remains strong, the Fed may continue to maintain high interest rates, and the market will come under pressure again.
Many people are now asking: Will the US-Iran situation escalate into a full-scale conflict?
Currently, the probability seems limited.
Because both sides are more like engaging in a "edge game."
The US needs to maintain deterrence, Iran needs to show toughness, but no one really wants to send oil prices soaring.
So, in the short term, the bigger variable for the market is actually the Federal Reserve.
To put it simply, all assets worldwide are revolving around one question:
When will the dollar start to loosen?
And BTC, essentially, is a barometer of global liquidity sentiment.
The current market situation is very much like the night before a storm.
Some have already begun to retreat, while others are quietly adding positions.
And the real big move often happens when the market is at its most chaotic. #美伊冲突再升级