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A 60% probability of passing behind the scenes: Why has Washington suddenly started to "loosen up" on crypto?
The prediction market now gives the CLARITY Act over a 60% chance of passing, and this number actually reveals a signal:
The US attitude is shifting.
The reasons are very practical.
First, the US does not want to lose its position as the global crypto hub.
Second, the US has realized that sanctions are basically useless.
Third, the US has finally realized: stablecoins could strengthen dollar dominance.
So now Washington is beginning to adopt a new approach:
"Instead of banning, regulate; instead of allowing, control."
The biggest role of the CLARITY Act is to establish rules.
Which tokens are securities;
which projects fall under CFTC;
which platforms need compliance.
The market fears gray areas the most, and the bill is reducing those gray areas.
Once passed, the first beneficiaries will be institutions.
Because pension funds, funds, banks, and insurance companies can finally participate more confidently.
But the banking industry is very nervous.
Because they suddenly realize they are no longer the only financial gateway.
In the future, on-chain wallets might be more important than banking apps.
In the past, a young person's first financial account was a bank card;
In the future, it might be a stablecoin wallet directly.
This is not just simple industry competition, but a generational shift in financial habits.
So why is the CLARITY Act important?
Because it could be the first time the US officially recognizes:
On-chain finance will not disappear; it will become part of the future financial system.
And capital markets are best at doing one thing: betting on the future in advance.