Is Bitcoin falling below 80k just the beginning? The Middle East suddenly changes face, and tonight’s non-farm payroll report could be even more dangerous

Yesterday we were still talking about rate cuts, and today we’re directly discussing the Strait of Hormuz.
What the market fears most is not bad news, but “consecutive bad news.”
After the sudden deterioration of the US-Iran situation, the first reaction of funds was very unified: to run away.
US stocks retreat from high levels;
Oil sharply V-reverses;
Gold regains strength;
Bitcoin then plays out a classic scenario—“the more others panic, the more it panics.”
Many people ask: Isn’t Bitcoin digital gold? Why does it fall when gold rises?
The reason is very practical.
In times of real safe-haven demand, funds first buy “old-school gold,” not “high-volatility youth version gold.”
Especially now, global liquidity hasn’t truly loosened; US bond yields remain high, and Bitcoin essentially still belongs to risk assets.
And tonight’s non-farm payroll report could determine the market’s direction for the next week.
If employment data continues to be strong, it means the US economy isn’t cooling down at all, and the Federal Reserve has reason to keep interest rates high.
What does the market fear most?
Not no rate cuts.
It’s “always next month for a cut.”
So funds will flow back into the dollar, and US stocks and the crypto market will continue to be under pressure.
But if the non-farm payroll unexpectedly falls below expectations, market sentiment will instantly change.
Because everyone is already close to going crazy from high interest rates; as soon as they see any sign of economic slowdown, they will immediately start trading on “rate cut expectations.”
At that point, it wouldn’t be surprising for Bitcoin to retake 80k.
But the real key isn’t the data itself, but whether Powell will continue to be stubborn in his rhetoric.
The biggest comedy in the market right now is:
Slightly bad data: market celebration;
Too bad data: market fears recession again.
So tonight, a classic scene may repeat:
Five minutes after the data release,
Wall Street first rallies, then falls, then surges again,
Retail investors open their accounts,
And find they’ve completely misjudged the direction. #比特币跌破8万美元