The United States has just taken action! The tension in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated, and BTC faces a life-or-death 48 hours tonight.

The market has finally realized that the 2026 script is even more outrageous than 2025.
Everyone was waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but suddenly the Middle East interrupted with a “war sequel.”
After the U.S. Central Command confirmed intercepting an Iranian attack, global markets immediately entered high volatility mode.
Who suffered the most?
Not crude oil.
Not the Nasdaq.
But Bitcoin, which never sleeps 24/7.
Because traditional markets can still close, but the crypto market is truly “under attack year-round.”
Many people have noticed that after Bitcoin fell below 80k, market sentiment started to weaken noticeably.
But the question is: is this a short-term shakeout, or the start of a major correction?
It all depends on two key factors.
First, will the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate?
If both sides only engage in “symbolic tit-for-tat,” the market will quickly adapt.
But if the risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz escalates, global energy prices will surge again.
And high oil prices are very uncomfortable for the Federal Reserve.
Because rising oil prices will push up inflation, making the Fed even less willing to cut rates.
Second, tonight’s non-farm payroll report.
The most surreal thing on Wall Street right now is:
Bad data could actually be good news.
Because what the market really wants to see isn’t whether the U.S. economy is strong, but when the Fed will admit defeat.
If non-farm payrolls cool down, the market will immediately start pricing in rate cuts.
BTC’s rebound probability will significantly increase.
But if employment remains hot, the Fed can continue to hold high the banner of “Higher for Longer.”
In plain language:
“Rate cuts? Not yet.”
At that point, risk assets might face another round of turbulence.
So tonight feels like a game of financial Werewolf:
Before the data is released,
Everyone claims they understand it;
After the data is released,
Everyone starts rewriting the story.