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Huang Moz "ignites," Powell "delivers the final blow": BTC is too tough tonight
Recently, BTC really resembles a working professional.
During the day, it faces macroeconomic pressure,
at night, it faces geopolitical pressure.
After the US confirmed intercepting Iran's attack, Middle East risks rapidly increased.
The first reaction of funds was to reduce risk exposure.
So BTC broke below 80k.
But more importantly, the market suddenly realized:
Rising oil prices could cause the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high.
And high interest rates are the biggest enemy of risk assets.
So tonight’s non-farm payroll report is actually a form of "psychological therapy" for the market.
If the data weakens, everyone will believe in rate cuts again.
If the data is too strong, the market will fall into despair again.
The funniest thing on Wall Street right now is:
In the past, everyone hoped the economy would do well;
Now, everyone hopes the economy "won't be too good."
Because if the economy is too strong,
the Fed won't cut interest rates.
Thus, global investors are in a strange state:
They hope for US prosperity on their lips;
but secretly hope for data cooling in their hearts.
Whether BTC can return to 80k tonight depends less on technicals and more on macro sentiment.
To sum it up in one sentence:
It’s no longer the crypto world deciding BTC,
but Powell deciding the crypto world. #美伊冲突再升级