"The End of 'Non-War, Non-Peace': Where is the Next Critical Point in US-Iran Relations?

After more than two months of military conflict, ten weeks of Strait blockade, countless diplomatic negotiations breaking down and restarting, the US-Iran game has entered a unique "middle ground"—neither full-scale war nor genuine peace. Experts precisely summarize it as "the extreme stalemate of non-war and non-peace," and predict that the situation will continue to show a trend of "stalemate normalization, low-intensity conflict, and fragmented negotiations."

But the stability of this "middle ground" is extremely poor. It’s like a suspension bridge between two canyons, seemingly hanging in mid-air and still, but held up by only a few steel cables. Any one of them breaking could cause the entire structure to collapse. So, what are these steel cables? In my view, there are three.

The first is the nuclear issue. This has always been the primary concern of the US side. Trump repeatedly emphasized that "Iran will never have nuclear weapons," demanding Iran suspend uranium enrichment activities; meanwhile, Iran stresses "suspension" rather than "permanent cessation," and hopes to discuss the issue after resolving the Strait navigation problem. The fundamental difference in stance on the nuclear issue means that a comprehensive peace agreement is far from being achievable in the short term.

The second is control over the Strait. Iran has already established a certain level of "institutional control" over the Strait of Hormuz through practical actions, requiring passing ships to apply for permits. Iran’s top foreign affairs advisor Velayati explicitly stated: "The Strait of Hormuz has been closed; unless the national will of the Islamic Republic of Iran decides otherwise, it will not reopen." The US insists that the Strait must be restored to pre-war conditions. The struggle over control of the Strait is the most direct trigger for military friction.

The third is the domestic political cycle. For the Trump administration, the midterm elections in November are an unmissable political deadline. Rising gasoline prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and the narrative of "America conducting a war in the Middle East without a clear outcome" threaten Republican electoral prospects, causing dissatisfaction within the party leadership and among some voters. Trump’s repeated oscillation between optimistic diplomacy and tough military deterrence largely responds to this domestic pressure. Iran faces similar internal pressures; hardliners are unwilling to make concessions on core sovereignty issues, and any compromise seen as "weak" could trigger political backlash.

Looking ahead, the most likely path is: the US and Iran will first reach a short-term, framework memorandum, announcing the end of hostilities and initiating a 30-day follow-up negotiation, with core issues pushed further back. Although fragile, this memorandum is the "greatest common divisor" both sides can currently find. On the edge of US-Iran confrontation, "cold peace" may be a more realistic choice than "hot war"—but it is far from a safe one.
$XTI

With increased international mediation efforts and both sides unable to afford a complete breakdown, a temporary agreement remains possible in the short to medium term. But achieving genuine reconciliation is still a distant goal. For investors, as long as these steel cables remain, every gust of wind in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to influence global markets’ nerves.

#美伊冲突再升级