Great Power Intervention and Regional Variables: The Third Hand Behind the US-Iran Conflict

If you only focus on Washington and Tehran, you will miss the most critical variable in this game. The US-Iran conflict has never been just a bilateral issue; it is a complex multi-threaded, multi-player chess game, with each external force shaping the course of the conflict in its own way.

First is Israel. Israel's role in the entire conflict can be summarized with one word—variable amplifier. Since the joint launch of "Epic Fire" against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Israeli military has publicly stated multiple times that it is prepared to launch a new round of strikes against Iran. According to Israeli sources, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, Israel is coordinating with the United States to prepare for possible military action. Defense Minister Gantz's words are extremely tough, claiming that the Israeli military is ready to deliver a "devastating blow" to Iran's "most vulnerable spots." This is crucial because Israel's hardline stance severely narrows the diplomatic space for concessions between the US and Iran. If Trump makes significant concessions to Iran, he will face backlash from domestic Republican hawks and may also encounter public opposition from Israel.

Second is the acceleration of multilateral diplomatic mediation. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi visited China on May 6, 2026, and held bilateral talks with Wang Yi. This is the highest-level diplomatic visit from Iran since the US-Israeli military strikes at the end of February. Araghchi explicitly stated in Beijing that Iran "fully trusts China" and expects China to continue leading efforts to stop the war and promote peace in the region. Meanwhile, Pakistan is also actively playing a mediating role between the US and Iran. Prime Minister Shehbaz called US-Iran negotiations a "historic breakthrough" that "will soon translate into lasting peace." Switzerland also stated it is ready to provide mediation support at any time. The simultaneous activity of China, Pakistan, and Switzerland as major mediating channels indicates that the international community's concern over the spillover risks of the US-Iran conflict has reached a high point.

Third is the power struggle among regional forces. On May 4, the UAE was attacked by drones from Iran, causing a fire in the Fujairah oil industrial zone and injuries. Attacks from Yemen also occur from time to time. These events indicate that the spillover effects of the US-Iran conflict are spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to a broader Middle East region, and any accidental incident could ignite a larger conflict.

Latest reports show that the Trump administration believes it is close to reaching a one-page understanding memo with Iran, which will declare an end to hostilities and initiate a 30-day follow-up negotiation on the final agreement. However, it is also clear that even so, this memo merely "bundles" the most difficult issues (long-term restrictions on nuclear capabilities, comprehensive sanctions relief, etc.) and leaves them to future negotiations. It is essentially a highly fragile buffer valve. As long as great power struggles do not cease and regional variables do not converge, the "extreme deadlock" between the US and Iran will not easily end.