Forecast: US April Non-Farm Payroll Data to be Released Tonight at 20:30, June Rate Cut Probability at 5.2%

On May 8, the US April non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8). It is expected to add only 62,000 jobs, significantly lower than the growth rates of previous years, but sufficient to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low level of 4.3%. The annual wage inflation rate is expected to rise from 3.5% to 3.8%. In the past, when the monthly non-farm employment in the US fell below 100,000, it was often seen as a signal of a weakening labor market and an economy on the brink of recession. However, the employment landscape has changed; Federal Reserve official Logan has publicly stated, ‘Currently, adding about 30,000 jobs per month is enough to achieve supply-demand balance.’ According to CME FedWatch data, prior to the release of tonight’s non-farm data, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates for the rest of the year is 72.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting in June is 5.2%.