Been watching the evtol race pretty closely, and honestly, it's one of those spaces where the hype is real but so are the risks. Archer and Joby have both been on absolute tear since 2023, and now that we're halfway through 2026, things are actually starting to get interesting.

So here's the thing - both of these companies were supposed to launch commercial operations by now, and we're seeing some real movement. The FAA certification process has been moving forward for both, though it's been slower than a lot of people expected. The interesting part is that approval might actually come quicker outside the US first. Both have been testing in the UAE, and that could be where we see the first real air taxi operations kick off.

What's got me thinking though is the valuation gap. Joby is sitting at around $13.2B market cap while Archer is at $5.9B. That's more than double, but when you look at what they're actually delivering right now, it's hard to justify. Joby does have some revenue from their Blade Air Mobility acquisition - they were pulling in around $22.6M in sales from helicopter operations - but let's be real, investors care about the evtol business, not helicopters.

Here's where it gets tricky. Both companies are still burning cash and won't be profitable for a while. The evtol industry is still figuring out demand, profitability, and how to actually scale this thing. That's not unique to either company - it's an industry-wide problem. But it means both are risky bets.

Archer's taken some heat from short sellers this year with multiple reports questioning their progress, which is probably why the stock is down while Joby's up significantly. Some of that pressure might be overdone though. When you compare what they're actually trying to do, Archer doesn't deserve to be valued at half of Joby's price.

If I had to pick between the two for 2026, I'd lean toward Archer. Not because it's a sure thing - neither of these are - but because the valuation gives you more margin of safety. In a space this uncertain, that matters. You're getting exposure to the evtol opportunity without overpaying for it.