Market Expectations: The U.S. non-farm payroll report for April will be released tonight at 8:30 PM. The market expects only 62k new jobs, a significant slowdown from the unexpectedly large increase of 178k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise from 3.5% to 3.8% year-over-year, indicating that wage inflation is still heating up.

Market Background: Since 2026, U.S. non-farm data has been highly volatile—January far exceeded expectations, February saw a surprising negative growth, and March nearly tripled the forecast, making monthly predictions extremely difficult. Expectations among institutions vary greatly, with Citigroup bearish at -15k jobs, while Soughbay Research is optimistic at up to 133k jobs. In April, ADP employment added 109k jobs, reaching a new high since March 2025, and initial unemployment claims hit a new low since 1969, suggesting that employment market resilience may be underestimated.
Federal Reserve and Market Implications: Against the backdrop of Middle East conflicts driving oil prices higher and persistent inflation, expectations for rate cuts this year have essentially disappeared. The door to reversing rate cuts would require the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% or for employment to decline significantly. If tonight’s data significantly exceeds expectations, it could trigger a re-pricing of rate hike expectations, strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold; if the data worsens substantially or turns negative, safe-haven demand and rate cut expectations could jointly benefit gold; a moderate, in-line result is likely to continue the current volatile pattern. #Gate广场五月交易分享