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My opinion on Rocket Lab's Q1 report $RKLB 2026
Positive points:
1 Growth is still accelerating, which is a strong sign that the market is expanding and far from saturation.. The company had been growing at +35-38% in previous quarters, this quarter jumped to +63.5%
2 Margin expansion from 28.7% to 38.2% in one year indicates that the company is shifting from selling services to selling products with higher margins. This is happening with the Space Systems division (products), which grew faster than the Launch Services division
3 The backlog of orders at $2.2 billion provides a clear outlook for 2026-2028
Points needing attention:
1 Operating cash flow is negative $50.3 million. The company is still burning cash each quarter. Liquidity is large ($1.477 billion) but mainly sourced from secondary offerings ($450 million issued in Q1 alone).. This means shareholders are paying the growth bill through dilution
2 The number of outstanding shares jumped from 543 million (December 2025) to 575 million (March 2026) = +5.9% in one quarter. This is a significant dilution in just one quarter!
3 If the Neutron launch is delayed (like what happened in 2025), the stock could correct sharply because the current valuation assumes Neutron's success
The company's execution has been excellent so far, but in my opinion, the valuation cannot tolerate any mistakes. The stock is trading at a sales multiple of +60x, which assumes:
- Neutron launches successfully on time
- Backlog continues to grow at the same pace
- Cash flow turns positive in 2027
If these three assumptions are met, we will see $RKL valued much higher than the current valuation #Not_A_Recommendation
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