According to Claude, $XRP entered the second quarter of 2026 under pressure after a 27% drop in the first quarter. The model noted that $XRP traded in the range of $1.41 to $1.44 in April. Claude pointed out that approximately 36.8 billion $XRP, which accounts for about 60% of the total circulating supply, has an average cost basis of $1.44. This level is a serious resistance zone, as many holders may attempt to sell at break-even after reaching zero profit. The AI model identified three possible outcomes for the second quarter of 2026. In a bullish scenario, $XRP could rise to $1.60–$1.82 if the proposed CLARITY law passes through the Senate Banking Committee, and $XRP ETFs continue to attract over $100 million in monthly inflows. The baseline forecast predicted $XRP trading in the range of $1.45 to $1.60, assuming moderate ETF demand and gradual regulatory progress. The bearish scenario suggests that $XRP could fall to $1.00–$1.20 if geopolitical tensions escalate or the CLARITY Act stalls. Claude also warned of an elevated NVT ratio for $XRP, which has risen to 1,076 — its highest level since October 2025. Historically, such spikes have sometimes preceded short-term price corrections.