The Middle East is at war, why is the crypto world the most panicked?


Many new retail investors experienced for the first time last night:
It turns out that a single shot in the Middle East can really cause BTC to lose a layer of skin.
After the US military confirmed a military counterattack in the Strait of Hormuz, global funds instantly switched modes.
Risk assets were sold off, safe-haven assets were franticly bought.
And BTC, neither purely a safe haven nor purely growth, is thus in an awkward position.
When it rises, everyone calls it "digital gold,"
When it falls, everyone treats it like a tech stock.
Currently, the market's biggest fear is oil prices spiraling out of control.
Because as long as crude oil continues to rise, US inflation will be hard to bring down.
If inflation can't be tamed, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates.
And the biggest bullish logic for BTC over the past year has actually been:
"Liquidity will loosen again in the future."
Now, this logic is beginning to be challenged.
Tonight’s non-farm payroll data has become even more important than the Middle East news itself.
If employment data is weak, the market will think rate cuts are still possible, and BTC might quickly recover lost ground.
But if the data is too strong, the market will start to reprice:
"No rate cuts, or even a continued hawkish stance."
By then, not only BTC, but even the US stock AI sector could see a pullback together.
So tonight, it’s not really about "watching non-farm," but about whether
Powell can continue to play the dove.
BTC1.14%
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