The asset linkage logic under the background of US-Iran conflict must be re-examined.

When news of clashes between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz broke, a thought-provoking phenomenon appeared: US stocks fell, Bitcoin fell, oil prices rose, and US Treasury yields hesitated.
This combination of asset movements is not accidental; there is a clear logical chain behind it, worth every market participant's careful analysis.
The chain is as follows—
Step 1: Geopolitical conflict escalation pushes up oil prices.
Step 2: Rising oil prices transmit to consumer goods prices through production and transportation costs, putting upward pressure on inflation.
Step 3: Inflation remains stubbornly high, causing the Federal Reserve’s rate cut timetable to be pushed back, and even possibly reigniting discussions of rate hikes.
Step 4: The prolonged high-interest-rate environment puts valuation pressure on risk assets (especially technology stocks and cryptocurrencies that previously surged), leading funds to shift toward defensive assets.
The key variable in this chain is the magnitude and duration of the oil price increase.
If it’s just a short-term pulse, then the impacts of steps three and four will be absorbed by the market;
If oil prices stay high for an extended period, the entire macro environment will undergo a medium-term change, at which point not only Bitcoin but also global stock markets will face a serious re-pricing.
$BTC
Additionally, there is another linkage path that many overlook: if the US-Iran conflict truly affects oil transportation, some oil-producing countries might use sovereign wealth funds to redeem overseas assets to cope with their fiscal pressures.
Such redemptions often involve selling US stocks and US bonds, indirectly causing a liquidity drain globally.
If tonight’s non-farm payroll data happens to be stronger than expected, it adds another weight to the third step in the chain above, turning risk assets’ outlook from a single bearish signal into a combined assault.
Once you understand this entire linkage, you can react faster than others, rather than only realizing the pattern after the market has moved.
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