#Gate广场五月交易分享

The US-Iran Attack Shatters Peace Illusions Non-Farm Payrolls Clash with Geopolitical Thunderstorm Global Markets in a Life-and-Death Battle

On May 8th, a gunshot in the Strait of Hormuz instantly drenched the recently warm US-Iran negotiations in cold water. The U.S. Central Command announced intercepting and countering an Iranian attack. The optimistic expectations of half a month of negotiations collapsed overnight, and global financial markets collectively staged a panic plunge. Previously, the market was still immersed in the celebration of the imminent implementation of a "one-page peace memorandum" and the imminent unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. stocks continued to surge, Bitcoin steadily above 80k, and oil prices retreated and cooled down. Everyone thought the Middle East conflict was about to end, and capital bulls were advancing aggressively. But Iran’s tough military counterattack directly tore apart the diplomatic illusion, the dawn of peace dimmed instantly, and geopolitical risks surged back. U.S. stocks quickly fell below high levels, Bitcoin sharply broke below the $80k key support, and oil experienced an extreme V-shaped reversal, plunging the day before and then soaring rapidly. Global funds frantically fled to safe havens.

This conflict has never been a simple military friction but the ultimate showdown over Iran’s nuclear red line, strait dominance, and regional power struggles. The U.S. is using negotiations to sway public opinion and stabilize global energy and financial markets while continuously tightening military deployments in the Middle East, attempting to use diplomatic pressure to coerce Iran into nuclear concessions; Iran refuses to compromise on sovereignty over the strait and nuclear development rights, responding with tough maritime attacks against U.S. blockades, refusing any unequal agreements that deprive it of core rights. Mutual strategic trust between both sides has long been zero; so-called negotiations are merely buffer games for mutual needs, with Israel secretly obstructing and regional forces stirring trouble, making a temporary agreement susceptible to collapse at any time. The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains high, and global oil supply faces the threat of disruption at any moment.

Tonight, the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released with great significance. It was supposed to be the only lifeline for bulls to reverse the downward trend and regain market initiative, but it coincided with a dual blow from geopolitical black swans. If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, expectations of Fed rate cuts will rise, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will temporarily recover. However, high oil prices continue to push inflation upward, severely constraining easing space; if non-farm payrolls beat expectations strongly, rate cuts will be delayed again, and under high interest rates, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will find it hard to rebound. Coupled with the possibility of renewed escalation between the US and Iran, the market dares not blindly bottom fish, and bulls face an uphill battle to recover lost ground.

The US-Iran situation is highly likely to continue a tug-of-war and escalation in the short term. Small-scale maritime confrontations will not stop, and a full-scale war remains unlikely, but localized friction has become the norm. Key signals are emerging densely: U.S. military continues to reinforce troops for escort in the strait, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is on high alert with tough statements, mediating countries are stuck in stalemate, disagreements over nuclear timeline cannot be reconciled, and Israel keeps escalating tensions and interfering with negotiations. Peace talks are long dead, and geopolitical turmoil will influence global asset trends for the long term. Gold and oil will fluctuate violently, and cryptocurrencies and stocks will oscillate in both directions. In the short term, markets will only fluctuate between panic and hope, with no genuine stable trend.