#ADP就业超预期降息再推后 U.S. April ADP employment data significantly exceeded market expectations: private sector added 109k jobs this month, not only far surpassing the revised 61k in March but also higher than the market consensus of 99k, marking the largest increase since January 2025, nearly 15 months ago.

This data quickly reversed market expectations for rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in June has surged to 94.2%, with only a 5.8% chance of a rate cut, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged this year has exceeded 70%.
The interest rate swap market's expectations are even more extreme, with the market pushing the timing of rate cuts to early 2028, and some futures prices indicate traders are even betting on the Fed possibly raising rates first in 2027. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 5 basis points.
From asset performance, the better-than-expected data reinforce the dollar's strength, while gold and silver prices are under pressure and declining.
Overall, the stronger-than-expected employment data reinforces the expectation of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, but it also weakens the dovish logic for rate cuts later this year.
In the context of high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and complex tariff policies, the market is rapidly digesting a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy path.