#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC is highly likely to have a second dip; when will the last decline before takeoff occur?

The recent BTC market has broken through $80k, does this mean many people are starting to become optimistic again, just like American traders, still firmly expecting BTC to reach $200k by the end of the year? But often, the most optimistic moment is also when you begin to fall into a trap.
However, current trading data, historical data, and multiple factors all tell you that before Bitcoin truly takes off, there will inevitably be a “second dip” that causes most people to give up their chips.
In this market where bulls are being lured into deep water and short-squeeze liquidations are nearing the end, don’t let a temporary rebound blind your eyes.
Hunting the bulls: The “nuclear bomb” on the liquidation map has already been planted
Currently, the market looks more like a “precise ambush” against bulls rather than a “bullish charge.”
By observing the contract liquidation data, you’ll find a chilling odds disparity:
Looking upward: Even if BTC forcibly surges to $87,000, it can only liquidate about $4.5 billion in shorts.
Short positions have already been thoroughly shaken out by previous violent surges.
Looking downward: If the market retraces to $71,000, over $13.1 billion in long positions will instantly vanish.
This cost-effectiveness indicates that the entire market, after breaking through $80k, has begun to firmly turn bullish, but this is also the time to operate with extreme caution. Who would want to pull such a heavy cart?
A 10% pullback could wipe out over $13 billion in long positions and potentially trigger a chain of liquidations.
In such high-risk events, what reason do you have to hold your bullets and activate your hedging mode?
Three macro “mountains”: Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, and the “life-and-death” test in June
If you think technical analysis is just a reference, then three “certainty events” in macroeconomics are converging into a storm:
First, the “curse” of Japan’s rate hikes: Latest news shows that the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates to 1.00% (+25bp) around June or July 2026, with an over 80% probability.
Historically, every time Japan hikes rates, BTC experiences major shocks:
March 2024: BTC drops -23%
July 2024: BTC drops -26%
January 2025: BTC drops -31%
This time, combined with the June time window, history is highly overlapping.
Based on historical data:
1. After a weekly golden cross rebound to around 32.2% (estimated $83k–$85k), BTC is likely to enter a golden cross correction and bottoming phase.
2. Additionally, considering our previous analysis of July–August, Bitcoin may see a major bottom, which coincides with the decline after the Fed’s rate hike in June or July.
Second, the “change of guard” curse at the Federal Reserve: On May 15, 2026, the Fed Chair will face a leadership transition.
Historical patterns show that power handovers often bring volatile liquidity swings and policy uncertainty, with large corrections as an “inertia response” of the market.
Can the new Fed Chair, Kevin Woor, break the curse? Or will he truly follow Trump’s arrangements?
Third, divergence in capital flows: Despite stablecoin market cap reaching a new high ($320 billion), note that USDT’s market cap has not broken new highs along with BTC.
Off-chain capital is on hold, while on-chain funds are playing a game.
Ethereum L1 stablecoin holdings account for 52.23%, with large stablecoin funds “playing dead” on the Ethereum chain—definitely not a sign of a raging bull market.
Sailing a boat to seek a sword: Why is the “second dip” the only way to confirm the bottom?
Many ask why a second dip is necessary. Because it’s a psychological consensus and a physical law of market testing pressure.
Historical pattern 1: Why is BTC highly likely to have a second dip?
Sailing a boat to seek a sword
◆In 2015, there were two dips.◆In 2018 and 2020, two dips each.◆In 2022, two dips.
A pattern repeating twice might be coincidence, but the third time is less likely.
The story of “wolf coming” fooled twice, but no one believes it the third time.
So, repeating three times might have some logical basis.
From October 2025 to today, only half a year has passed.
Because this one-year bear consensus means many funds might not enter before September.
BTC has already hit a new high of $83k, but USDT’s market cap hasn’t increased further—no new funds entering, which might relate to this one-year bear consensus.
This is why this “second dip” has repeated three times in history.
Historical pattern 2: Warnings from the MVRV indicator:
In the 2018 bear market’s final dip, Bitcoin’s MVRV bottomed at 1.15, with a rebound to 1.63.
In this cycle, Bitcoin’s MVRV bottomed at 1.14, with a rebound to 1.50.
The last “desperate” retracement is still needed before fully releasing risk.
The truth is: stocks are supported by profits and dividends, but BTC’s value requires consensus exchange amid extreme volatility.
Main players need a second dip to confirm retail traders’ despair, to wipe out floating chips, and to complete the final big “feeding.”
Technical pattern: structure closely resembles 2022
BTC is now precisely replicating the 2022 trend:
Bitcoin is copying the 2022 pattern
Breaking key support
Retesting resistance (诱多)
The final wave of accelerated decline begins, triggering a major move.
Followed by Bitcoin’s largest rally in history.
2026: the structure is exactly the same.
We just completed retesting the resistance.
The trap effect is nearly perfect because “Bitcoin will surge to 100K” has become a widely believed mantra.
If not killed now, when?
If history repeats—before a real rally, there will be one last dip.
Technical confirmation: the market ends consolidation and is about to enter a high-volatility expansion phase.
Core chart signals show that the long-term accumulated technical pattern is fully mature, and historical data indicates this indicator has never failed.
The market has moved past the wait-and-see stage; this is not a slow bottoming process but a critical point for explosive price expansion.
As an investor, you should realize that extreme volatility is imminent, and you must prepare for major price swings.
Final prediction: where is the bottom?
The market is a rebound, not a reversal!
Time window: June–July 2026 is a high-risk period.
Considering the “one-year bear” consensus, the real bottom may appear between July and August.
Space expectation:
Bitcoin dropping to $60k in February is a “second dip.”
While not as extreme as some theories suggest—dropping near $42,000—retracing to support levels between $50k and $55k is highly probable.
Conclusion:
BTC’s rebound to around $85k is extreme.
When will the “last dip” arrive, and how low will it go?
The key is, the harder it falls, the cleaner the chips are washed out, and the higher the subsequent takeoff can reach.
The views expressed are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice!