8:30 PM US April Non-Farm Payrolls data is released. This is the last key employment report before Powell steps down, and it is also the core signal for the Federal Reserve’s June policy decision—directly setting the tone for the cryptocurrency market this week.

The core logic in one sentence:
Non-farm data → Fed interest-rate expectations → the US dollar and US Treasuries → crypto asset pricing. The market has essentially wiped out expectations of rate cuts this year; fundamentally, this move is an asymmetric risk game.

All three scenarios are fully pre-judged

1. Significantly above expectations · Hawkish bearish
New employment > 100,000, unemployment rate < 4.2%, and wage growth exceeding expectations will completely lock in the possibility of rate cuts, and may even trigger pricing for a rate hike. The US dollar and US Treasuries rally; major coins plunge in the short term. Long positions are clustered and stamped out, and altcoins fall much more than major coins.
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2. In line with expectations · Neutral consolidation
New employment is 62,000–67,000, unemployment rate is 4.2%–4.3%, and wages match market consensus—without changing the Fed’s wait-and-see stance. In the crypto market, price action remains range-bound; after brief needle-like spikes, it returns to technical levels. There is no trend, and capital returns to sector hotspots.
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3. Significantly below expectations · Dovish bullish
New employment < 40,000, unemployment rate > 4.4%, and wage growth below expectations will reignite market expectations for rate cuts. The US dollar and US Treasuries fall; major coins surge in the short term. Short-sellers are forced to cover, further boosting the move. Small- and mid-cap coins, along with hot themes, rise across the board.

Key things to watch

① Data priority: Average hourly earnings > unemployment rate > number of new jobs. The impact of wages on inflation and policy is far greater than fluctuations in the number of jobs alone.
② Watch for prior-value revisions: If the March prior figure of 178,000 is revised downward significantly, it will directly offset the market impact of this data.
③ Market timing: The period 1 hour after the data release is an extreme volatility window—where it’s very easy to get hit by both bulls and bears. The true trend will be established after 4 hours of long/short clearing.$BTC #比特币跌破8万美元