Just caught Vistra's Q4 earnings release and honestly the numbers are a bit mixed. EPS came in at $2.18 which definitely missed the expected $2.51, but here's the thing - earnings still jumped 91% year-over-year, so the underlying business is clearly doing something right.

Where it really missed was the top line. Revenue hit $4.58 billion versus the consensus call of $5.34 billion - that's a pretty meaningful gap. That said, full-year 2025 revenues of $17.74 billion still showed solid growth from $17.22 billion the year before. The miss on quarterly revenue seems like it might be timing-related more than anything structural.

Looking at the operational side, fuel and purchased power costs jumped 24.9% year-over-year to $9.1 billion, which is definitely eating into margins. Operating income actually declined to $1.91 billion from $4.08 billion prior year, so that's concerning. Interest expenses spiked 31% to $1.18 billion too.

On the positive side, they're still generating solid cash flow with $4.07 billion from operations, and they've been aggressive on buybacks - $5.9 billion repurchased since late 2021 with another $1.8 billion authorized through 2027. For 2026, management is guiding for adjusted EBITDA of $6.8-$7.6 billion and free cash flow of $3.925-$4.725 billion.

The stock is rated Hold currently, which makes sense given the miss but also the solid long-term positioning. Worth watching how they navigate those rising cost pressures going forward.